Football betting tips: Bundesliga
1.25pts A penalty awarded in the match at 23/10 (Betfred)
0.75pt A red card shown in the match at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Both teams to have a red card at 66/1 (Sky Bet)
Mainz were a feature of last week's column. An unexpected hammering at the hands of Borussia Dortmund knocking them down a peg following a strong spell under Urs Fischer's guidance.
Friday presents an opportunity to bounce back and it's one they need to take. Just two points now separates themselves and the bottom three and while I still believe they'll avoid the drop, you don't want to present your rivals with any possible opportunities.
Hamburg - the visitors - have their post-winter break form to thank for their current position in the Bundesliga table. They're unbeaten in five with the previous two both ending in victory - the gap to 16th now sits at six points.
Just two of their nine games against teams currently 13th or lower have ended in defeat with three trips on the road seeing them leave with at least something. It really has the feel of a contest which could go either way.
Mainz vs Hamburg
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: BBC iPlayer, Bundesliga YouTube
- Live odds, form and stats
The referee for this is Robin Braun and that could make it an eventful one. He's demonstrated how strict he can be at various points this season.
Five of his six Bundesliga outings have seen at least four yellows shown with reds coming in two. Interestingly, games involving Hamburg and Mainz are included in that run of yellows.
A total of 18 yellows have been dished out in just three second tier games with four in the first round of the cup. Alongside the cards, he's also awarded five penalties in the top-flight.
It could spell trouble for both of these sides. Mainz sit second for yellows picked up this season (51) while their five reds is bettered only by...Hamburg, who have six.
While he may not have been as free flowing with the reds compared with the yellows when officiating in the 2. Bundesliga last season, the sheer volume of cautions makes a RED CARD SHOWN an option at 11/2 with these teams involved.
There's also 66s for BOTH TEAMS SHOWN A RED, which again is worth consideration. I've already outlined the fact that both lead the way in this category.
You often need some kind of flash point for this to happen which is always possible, particularly in a game where the referee is heavily involved. You've also got the possibility of second bookings.
One of those came in Hamburg's loss to Augsburg back in November with Braun the official - Keven Schlotterbeck sent off with just under ten minutes of normal time remaining.
His last game in the Bundesliga came at the end of January with Hoffenheim beating Union Berlin 3-1. Four cards came that day but he awarded a high total of 29 fouls - both of those sides average the most fouls per game in Germany's top-flight.
That could be an indicator of what to expect considering the showings of both Hamburg and Mainz. The visitors rank fourth for average number of fouls committed, Mainz are in seventh, although they jump up to fifth in home games.
At 2s and above I'll also side with A PENALTY IN THE MATCH. The referee's showings in this area appear to make it a decent bit of value.
Braun's awarded one in four of six Bundesliga games during the current campaign while there were eight in 15 second division appearances when a regular there in 2024/25.
Odds correct at 16:40 GMT (19/02/26)
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