- Tom Carnduff's Fußball am Freitag: P/L: +22.95pts | ROI: 83% | Staked: 27.5pts | Returned: 50.45pts
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
2pts Rasmus Kristensen 1+ total shots at 4/5 (bet365)
1pt Rasmus Kristensen 2+ total shots at 10/3 (bet365)
The Bundesliga's winter break has concluded and we return for the first Friday column of 2026 after three weeks off.
With 15 gameweeks on the board so far, there are still teams who are yet to face each other. This weekend will drag us closer to the halfway point and getting the first half of fixtures fulfilled.
Friday games have proven to be a mixed bag in terms of the entertainment value. Over 2.5 goals has had a strike rate of 40% yet the league average sits at 61%.
It, of course, depends on the teams involved but it's something I'm trying to keep in mind with short prices often on offer for three or more in Germany's top-flight.
This week should hopefully deliver some end-to-end action at least. Eintracht Frankfurt have had 13 different goalscorers this season - only Bayern can match that - but their 30 goals conceded is second to Heidenheim (34).
And Dortmund are, well, Dortmund. You never quite know what to expect.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: BBC iPlayer, Bundesliga YouTube
- Live odds, form and stats
As the above goals statistics suggest, some of Frankfurt's games this season have been wild.
They've been involved in a 6-4 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach, while also being on both sides of a 4-3 scoreline.
Unfortunately, they did seemingly focus more on defensive improvement in the weeks leading up to the break. Three of their previous four have seen two goals or fewer.
I mean, ultimately, if you're happy to have two of your back-five containing players who regularly featured for the relegated Leeds side of 22/23 which conceded 78 in 38 Premier League outings then you can't be overly surprised by your defensive showings.
One of those is in focus this week and I'm siding with the 4/5 on RASMUS KRISTENSEN 1+ TOTAL SHOTS, with smaller stakes at 10/3 for 2+.
He's switched between centre-back and right wing-back positions but I'm hopeful he'll be featuring in the latter role on Friday night.
Kristensen's seen 10 shots in the Bundesliga this season yet eight of those have been in home contests. In fact, backing 2+ has landed in three of four outings when playing as a wing-back at the Deutsche Bank Park.
Add in that Frankfurt have demonstrated a clear preference to build attacks down their right side under Dino Toppmöller. No team has used that flank more in Germany's top-flight.
It's quite a significant contrast. The figure stands at a huge 45% for the right compared with 31% on the left.
There's the open play threat but also the potential from set-pieces too as the hosts should take more corners given the styles on show.
While hardly inspiring with performances in the Premier League, Kristensen has enjoyed more joy in the Bundesliga. That can continue in Friday's free-to-air game.
Odds correct at 11:45 GMT (07/01/26)
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