- Tom Carnduff's Fußball am Freitag: P/L: +25.95pts | ROI: 110% | Staked: 23.5pts | Returned: 49.45pts
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
2pts David Raum 1+ assists at 4/1 (bet365)
The Friday night Bundesliga contest is beginning to establish an interesting trend.
With Germany's top-flight averaging 3.26 goals per match, the Friday contest has returned a figure of 2.73. Focus on the last six and it plummets to 2.00.
Now it's not a certain fact that all games which take place to begin the weekend will be tight, cagey affairs, but it is notable how '1-0' is making appearances in a league where it has no right to.
And if I can take on the form of a leader of the opposition polling much better than a sitting government, I want to declare that better times are ahead.
That begins in this edition with a revitalised Borussia Mönchengladbach outfit welcoming the high-flying RB Leipzig. The hosts are the only side over the past three games to return the maximum nine points available.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: BBC iPlayer, Bundesliga YouTube
- Live odds, form and stats
While Mönchengladbach have been gaining points, their recent trio of wins have come against Heidenheim (18th), Köln (10th) and St. Pauli (16th).
To their credit they did score at least three in each but they were brushed aside 3-0 by Bayern Munich while the 6-4 loss to Eintracht Frankfurt gives them more credit than they should have considering they went 6-0 down with less than 50 minutes played.
I'd hold some confidence in Leipzig's ability to secure all three points here given that they've won seven of seven against sides currently ninth or lower in the Bundesliga table.
The match-up has potential for goals though, and you have to stretch yourself to 3.5 to get an odds-against price on the Overs. Instead, I'm delving into the players market.
At 4/1, DAVID RAUM 1+ ASSISTS is an eye-catching price considering the high volume of chances he creates for others.
Set-pieces play a factor in this but that can only benefit a player's chances of getting the helper on a goal.
Raum's created a total of 34 chances for others, which is double the next-best tally among Leipzig players in the Bundesliga. Take away the set-pieces and it's still a healthy tally of 13.
Eight of his 11 Bundesliga outings this season have delivered at least three chances created. Despite this, he somehow only has one assist on his tally.
Expected assists (or xA in short) is a metric which measures the quality of those chances. The left-back's currently at 3.19 which further underlines how he should have had more assists than he currently does.
Combine the above factors with Leipzig's clear preference to attack down their left side and it's a price which is worth taking on Friday night.
Odds correct at 1615 GMT (27/11/25)
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