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Tom Carnduff's Bundesliga tips: Bayern Munich vs Werder Bremen on Friday September 26



Football betting tips: Bundesliga

2pts Werder Bremen over 2.5 corners at 29/20 (BetVictor)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Good news for fans of home teams winning comfortably and/or the can-can music, Bayern Munich are back in free-to-air action on Friday night.

Vincent Kompany's side are four wins from four, scoring 18 and conceding just three. Trailing them are Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig - look, it's normality.

Another three points should await them as they welcome Werder Bremen, a side whose season can be categorised in the 'as expected' folder.

Honestly, there would have been some better and more competitive games to give the Friday slot to. Mainz vs Dortmund and St. Pauli vs Leverkusen two scheduled in for Saturday which would have been great in prime time.

In truth, I'm not overly offended if you take in your Friday football elsewhere this week. No, really, go on. It's fine.

For those of you who still want to take in what the BBC has to offer, plus the Bundesliga's own YouTube channel let's not forget, I've found one pick to cheer on at least.


Bayern Munich vs Werder Bremen

I really do not enjoy betting on domestic games involving Bayern Munich. The odds are so heavily in their favour the knock-on effect it has in other markets is drastic.

Fancy getting with Harry Kane in the shots market? You have to back him to have SEVEN to get an odds-against price (and even then one bookmaker has gone 17/20) - he's yet to achieve this in any of the four games so far.

The hosts are 1/11 for victory which is taking me to my usual approach when Bayern are featuring - take the opposition's corner line.

In this case, it's OVER 2.5 for BREMEN. It's a low enough line to warrant interest with prices of 29/20 and 11/8 available.

This has been a winning pick for the opponents in both of Bayern's home league outings so far, with it also coming in across each of their final five at the Allianz last season.

The strange thing is that in my usual metrics to measure corner potential, Bremen rank poorly. But the line is so low it's worth taking it on.

They're not prolific in areas such as crossing but then 67% of the requirement could be hit in consecutive passages of play - a corner awarded directly following another is always a possibility.

And this low line took me to researching what Bremen boss Horst Steffen did when in charge of second tier Elversberg last season. The numbers are good despite their style.

They returned 3+ corners in 31 of 34 (a success rate of 92%). There is the significant element of placing a juggernaut in Bayern as the opposition but then you'll also have some element of game state.


Odds correct at 1615 BST (25/09/25)

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