- Tom Carnduff's Fussball am Freitag 25/26: Staked: 64.5pts | Returned: 80.72pts | P/L: +16.22pts | ROI: 25%
- Tom Carnduff's Fussball am Freitag 26/27: Staked: 9.5pts | Returned: 12.5pts | P/L: +3pts | ROI: 32%
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
2pts Aleksandar Pavlovic 2+ total shots at 7/4 (bet365)
1pt Aleksandar Pavlovic 2+ shots on target at 10/1 (bet365)
I'm unsure if the lack of variation in fixtures has been a positive or a negative for this column in the opening weeks of the season.
The opening night saw Bayern Munich hammer Stuttgart. The following week, Stuttgart bounced back by thrashing Köln. Seven days later we had Schalke's win over Union Berlin. This edition sees Bayern Munich hosting Union Berlin.
The bookmakers see this as straightforward as straightforward can be, although I wouldn't attach the word 'straightforward' to Bayern Munich across the first few outings.
Sure, we've seen the expected attacking brilliance in wins over Stuttgart and Bodo/Glimt but away games haven't followed a similar path. Schalke frustrated them in a 0-0 draw while they needed Harry Kane to strike as the second-half was getting on to get past newly-promoted minnows Elversberg.
This is at home though, back in Bavaria on the opening weekend of Oktoberfest and against an Union side who have offered very little so far. How could we possibly disagree with the 1/11 price on the Bayern victory?
Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: BBC iPlayer, Bundesliga YouTube
- Live odds, form and stats
With that price for success comes the expected short odds elsewhere. Five Bayern players find themselves shorter than even money to strike anytime with two others no bigger than 6/5.
Over 4.5 goals also fails to break evens but BTTS is the same price if you fancy Union to find a way through. I did consider it given some of Bayern's displays so far but I just don't know how much I can trust the visitors.
Instead, I'm looking for a way into this Bayern side and that comes in the form of ALEKSANDAR PAVLOVIC, with the midfielder priced at 7/4 (around 6/4 elsewhere in places) for 2+ TOTAL SHOTS and 10s for 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET.
Both are prices worth taking based on his early season showings, with bet365 a 'super sub' firm even if he has a habit of playing 90 minutes. The previous campaign saw him begin to establish himself as a real starter in this side with an injury-free extended run of games.
While he may only have eight goals and seven assists in 105 outings for the club, this season has seen him given a little bit more attacking freedom and that is shown in the early shots count.
Pavlovic has returned three shots in two of his three Bundesliga appearances with two coming in that Champions League success over Bodo/Glimt.
The midfielder only saw ten efforts across 1,460 minutes of German top-flight football last season. The current campaign's delivered six in just 248 minutes. Not a great deal has changed in terms of position and it may be down to the calibre of opponent faced but he's seemingly spent less time on the ball in his own half.
Union conceded 21 shots (ten on target) in a convincing 4-0 loss to Bayer Leverkusen, while they come into this game on the back of shipping 19 (ten on target) in the defeat to Schalke last time out.
A defence under pressure does not need a trip to Bayern. You'd fancy most of those wearing the Oktoberfest-inspired colourful shirt to try and get in on the act, but Pavlovic represents the best value among the options.
Odds correct at 11:15 BST (16/09/26)
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