Football betting tips: Bundesliga
1.5pts Alexis Claude-Maurice 2+ shots on target at 2/1 (General)
1pt Alexis Claude-Maurice 3+ shots on target at 7/1 (bet365, BetVictor)
I'm naturally one to champion the Bundesliga offering on a Friday but games such as this feel like they require a bit more effort in convincing you to watch - particularly on a night with a Premier League contest.
A meeting between the teams sat 10th and 12th in the Bundesliga table may not jump off the page but the unexpected post-winter break form of the hosts certainly makes it interesting.
Augsburg sat 15th at Christmas with just two points separating themselves and the bottom three. Since then though, they've lost just two of their previous eight with four of the last five ending in victory.
A side previously fearing relegation now hold a comfortable eight-point gap to those at the bottom and the mid-table nothingness about their current position will be more than welcomed.
Köln should also be fine even if they're just four points back. Inconsistency has plagued their season with wins increasingly becoming a rarity and yet they're picking up the odd point here and there which should keep them out of trouble.
But the form of their opponents will be a cause for concern. Augsburg's impressive recent returns include a shock victory away at Bayern Munich and they've used the confidence gained there to secure results elsewhere.
Augsburg vs Köln
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: BBC iPlayer, Bundesliga YouTube
- Live odds, form and stats
Neither side are particularly flowing in attack yet it could be a game which hits the over 2.5 marker - that's an 8/11 shot across the board.
One player who will be lively for the hosts though is ALEXIS CLAUDE-MAURICE. It's worth backing him for 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET at 2/1 and 3+ at 7s.
The main reason behind this is volume. The attacking midfielder is averaging 2.5 shots per Bundesliga game this season with that figure jumping up to 3.0 in home games.
Claude-Maurice has returned at least four in half of the home outings. His shots on target rate stands at 39% too, with 62% of his total shots coming in front of Augsburg's own supporters.
Since the winter break, Claude-Maurice has had at least two shots in each of his eight games. Five of the previous six have returned 3+ with four or more in three of those.
Köln have also struggled to keep opposition shots totals down, particularly in away games. The 14.4 average is the fifth-highest in Germany's top-flight with the figure jumping up to 16.0 in away outings.
The above shot map gives you a clear picture on where his shots come from. What is interesting is that Köln are a fairly 'stand offish' team under Lukas Kwasniok and aren't intent on pressing their opponents.
They are a low-ranking side on tackles, interceptions and fouls. Should Claude-Maurice get the opportunity to shoot from distance he will take it. He's demonstrated that he can find the target from range.
The temptation is there to back the hosts given their recent form but key to that has been the French attacker. There's more appealing value in backing him to be heavily involved once again.
Odds correct at 17:45 GMT (25/02/26)
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