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Free football preview and betting tips: Burnley v Chelsea and Leicester City v Southampton

Last Updated April 19 2018, 18:44Football
Chris Wood celebrates scoring for Burnley
Chris Wood celebrates scoring for Burnley

Tom Carnduff has 15/8 and 7/1 best bets for Thursday night's two matches in the Premier League as Burnley are backed to beat Chelsea.


Thursday's Premier League recommended bets

3pts Chris Wood to have 2+ shots on target against Chelsea at 15/8

1pt Burnley to beat Chelsea and over 2.5 goals in the match at 36/5

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record


Burnley v Chelsea (1945 BST, Sky Sports Main Event)

Burnley's quest for European football continues on Thursday evening when they welcome Chelsea to Turf Moor.

Sean Dyche's men sit just two points behind Arsenal in sixth and are enjoying a five-game winning run that has thrown themselves into contention.

They face a Chelsea side who saw an Oliver Giroud-inspired comeback at Southampton last weekend to win 3-2, despite being 2-0 down with 20 minutes remaining.

That victory broke their three-match losing streak in the Premier League away from Stamford Bridge, but they face a tough task to build on that when they come up against the Clarets.

Burnley stunned Chelsea when the two teams met back in August. A first-half Sam Vokes double, combined with Stephen Ward's effort in between, helped the visitors seal all three points in a 3-2 victory that saw two red cards for Antonio Conte's team.

Chris Wood has been in fantastic form since his return from injury. He's hit five goals in as many games, including one in their 2-1 win over Leicester City last time out.

He's as big as 12/5 to score anytime on Thursday, which seems decent value given the fact you'd expect him to amongst the goals if Burnley are to strike.

It may also be worth considering looking at stats betting, especially shots on target. Wood has finished with two or more shots on target in four of his last five outings, and can be found at 15/8 to repeat that against Chelsea.


Opta stats

  • Burnley won the reverse of this fixture on the opening weekend – their first top-flight victory over Chelsea since August 1973.
  • Chelsea haven’t lost both league meetings in a season against Burnley since the 1968-69 campaign.
  • The Clarets haven’t done the league double against the reigning top-flight champions since 1953-54, when they beat Arsenal home and away.
  • The Blues have scored in all seven of their Premier League meetings with Burnley; only against Wigan (16), Derby and Portsmouth (14 each) do they have a better 100% scoring record in the competition.
  • Burnley’s only previous Premier League game played on a Thursday was on New Year’s Day 2015, in a 3-3 draw away at Newcastle.
  • The Lancashire side are unbeaten in their seven previous Premier League home midweek games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), winning four and drawing three.
  • Chelsea have only lost one of their six Premier League games on a Thursday (W3 D2), with that defeat coming in their last such match (3-5 vs Tottenham, January 2015).
  • Sam Vokes scored a brace at Stamford Bridge in the reverse fixture – no player has ever scored at least twice in two Premier League meetings against the Blues within the same season.
  • Cesc Fabregas has had a hand in three goals in his three Premier League appearances at Turf Moor, scoring once for Arsenal and providing two assists with Chelsea.
  • Alvaro Morata scored just 10 minutes into his Premier League debut against Burnley in the reverse fixture. He’s yet to score home and away against the same side in the competition.

Goals may be the avenue to explore as well. Dyche has previously said that he 'loves' 1-0 games, but his side have seen over 2.5 goals in their last five games.

For Chelsea, four of their last five away games have seen three or more goals, setting it up nicely for the ball to be in the back of the net on a few occasions here.

Burnley are available for the victory at 15/4, but backing them to win with over 2.5 goals in the match bumps up the value to an interesting 36/5, which they've done in recent weeks.

Bobby Madley is the man in the middle. He's shown an average of four cards in the last five games that he has officiated in any competition and this one has the potential for further bookings.

The last four fixtures between the two sides have seen 19 yellow cards and three reds. All three of which have been shown to Chelsea.

Score prediction: Burnley 2-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Best bet: Burnley to win and over 2.5 goals at 36/5

Alternative bet: Chris Wood to have 2+ shots on target at 15/8

Jamie Vardy celebrates after netting for Leicester
Jamie Vardy celebrates after netting for Leicester

Leicester v Southampton (1945 BST)

Thursday night's action also sees Leicester City host a Southampton side who are battling for survival in the Premier League.

Mark Hughes' side sit five points adrift of safety, and the picture could have looked a whole lot better if they were able to hold on for victory against Chelsea last time out.

Leicester are comfortably sitting in eighth in the standings and are nailed-on for a top-half finish. They can mathematically finish inside the top-six, but that will be too tough of an ask for Claude Puel's men.

Despite Southampton's situation, Leicester can be found as big as 7/5 to pick up all three points in this one. The Saints are 23/10 outsiders and the draw is around the 5/2 mark.

The visitors do sit 19th in the form charts having secured just one point from their last possible 15. Their away form won't give them much confidence, given the fact they have just one win in their last ten on the road.


Opta stats

  • Leicester won the reverse of this fixture 4-1 in December – they’ve not done the Premier League double over Southampton since the 1999-00 campaign.
  • Saints are winless in all four of their Premier League visits to the King Power Stadium (D2 L2), with their last away top-flight win at Leicester coming at Filbert Street in December 2001 (4-0).
  • The Foxes are winless in their three previous Premier League games played on a Thursday (D2 L1), with their only such home game finishing in a 6-1 defeat against Spurs in May 2017.
  • Saints have kept a clean sheet in their last three Thursday Premier League games, winning the last two in a row, most recently against Arsenal in January 2015 (2-0).
  • Southampton have lost their last three away league games, last losing four in a row on the road in January 2016.
  • They’ve also conceded three goals in each of their last three away Premier League games – they last did so in four in a row in October 2012.
  • The Foxes are looking to avoid consecutive home Premier League defeats for the first time since September, when they lost to Chelsea and Liverpool at the King Power Stadium.
  • Mark Hughes is winless in his last five Premier League games against Leicester (D3 L2), with all three draws finishing 2-2
  • Charlie Austin hasn’t scored in back-to-back Premier League away games in a single season since April 2015 when he was with QPR.
  • Jamie Vardy is just two goals away from scoring 50 at the King Power Stadium for Leicester in all competitions.

Hughes can take some hope in Leicester's recent struggles at home. They've won just one of their last five in front of their own fans, drawing three.

The Foxes won comfortably when these two sides met back in mid-December. A Shinji Okazaki brace, combined with efforts from Riyad Mahrez and Andy King, were the difference in a 4-1 hammering at St. Mary's.

Jamie Vardy didn't score that day, but he does sit as Leicester's top scorer with 20 goals so far this season and will be eager to add more to his tally in this one.

The 31-year-old has been in great form in recent weeks, scoring four goals in as many games. The England striker also has eight goals in his last ten games for the East Midlands outfit.

Score prediction: Leicester City 2-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Best bet: Jamie Vardy to score anytime and Leicester to win at 9/4

Alternative bet: Leicester to win and both teams to score at 15/4


Preview posted at 1720 BST on 18/04/18

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