The Kelly Bet: Arsenal to hold the advantage over Manchester United
Liam Kelly selects value bets of interest for the fourth round of Premier League fixtures in this week's Kelly Bet.
Football betting tips: The Kelly Bet
2pts Over 21.5 Total Fouls Conceded in Brentford vs Bournemouth at 10/11 (Unibet)
1.5pts Arsenal to win vs Manchester United at 4/5 (General)
Fouls forthcoming at Brentford
I fancy Andoni Iraola's Bournemouth to improve as the season goes on. They're another team that have suffered from injuries to important players, personnel vital to the style the new manager is looking to implement.
There are signs that Iraola's ideology is beginning to be understood, however, taking much better shape in a 3-2 midweek League Cup win, albeit against Championship side Swansea.
Brentford will be an altogether different challenge for Bournemouth.
The Bees also like to apply pressure and are extremely difficult to beat as hosts. I think this will lead to a stretched pitch and, in turn, plenty of stoppages for fouls at the Brentford Community Stadium on Saturday.
Indeed, OVER 21.5 TOTAL FOULS CONCEDED at 10/11 with Unibet is solid value selection from my perspective.
Bournemouth lead the Premier League in fouls conceded (40) at this early stage of the new campaign, averaging 13.3 per game with their proactive approach to winning back the ball.
Brentford head up the league standings for fouls won (41) this season, averaging 13.6 per game, but Thomas Frank's side don't shy away from physicality, averaging 11 fouls conceded per game this season.
Additionally, Bournemouth have won an average of 11 fouls per game this term, making the line for total fouls in this match look a little low.
Gunners to fire at home
If last season's fixture between Arsenal and Manchester United at the Emirates is anything to go by, a 3-2 thriller decided by a late Eddie Nketiah goal, Sunday will certainly be 'Super'.
The Premier League's marquee match-up for the weekend will be a treat for the neutral and can follow a similar pattern to January's game — territorial dominance from Arsenal and a typical counter-attacking threat from Manchester United.
Perhaps more should be expected from Erik ten Hag's men this time around at the Emirates, but a relatively lacklustre start to the season and a growing injury list is a big part of the reason why ARSENAL TO WIN makes value appeal at 4/5.
Raphaël Varane has joined Luke Shaw and Mason Mount on the sidelines, all key players for United's plans.
In truth, Ten Hag's team looked defensively vulnerable with the first three names above healthy, so facing an Arsenal side that are creating chances is a daunting prospect.
The Gunners shut things down a little too early in the 2-1 win over Nottingham Forest and have since logged 2.00 and 3.11 xG against Crystal Palace and Fulham respectively.
Mikel Arteta has had his own injury issues to deal with across those matches, especially in defence, but their situation is starting to look a lot better, while United's only worsens.
As mentioned, that should set up the pattern of the game in the home side's favour.
Odds correct at 2000 BST (31/08/23)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.