Free betting tips and match preview: Bundesliga - Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt

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1pt Eintracht Frankfurt to have 18+ total shots at 11/2

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Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt (19:30 BST, BT Sport)

Werder Bremen were seventh at this point last season, battling for a place in Europe and just six points off the top-four. Now, with six games of the current campaign remaining, their aim is to avoid the drop.

It looked as if they were certain for relegation when they were hammered 4-1 by Bayer Leverkusen on the first game back following the break but two wins and a draw have dragged them closer to safety; the margin to Mainz in 15th is now just three points.

With the inconsistent form of those above Bremen, including Frankfurt, who can't be deemed safe just yet, they'll now fancy their chances of survival. Narrow victories over Schalke and Freiburg could have the biggest of impacts and another win here would be significant as it would see them overtake Fortuna Dusseldorf.

Frankfurt will also be full of confidence following their 2-1 win away at top-six side Wolfsburg. They may have had to come from behind to draw with Freiburg in the game prior to that but it really was a contest they should have won. Frankfurt's 4.30 xG was met with Freiburg's 0.76 and a point apiece wasn't a fair reflection of how things transpired.

The issue for the hosts is that, while they have been winning games, there's little creativity in terms of clear cut chances. Leonardo Bittencourt's spectacular winner from range against Schalke is perhaps an indication of that. The results may be coming in for Bremen but there are some big questions about just how sustainable this upturn in form is.

It's clear that the shift in mentality has seen Bremen focusing on their defensive duties rather than the attack. Schalke and Freiburg failed to really find the opportunities to score while the draw with Borussia Monchengladbach can be described as dull at best; hardly one for the history books but more than satisfactory for them in their current position.

They'd more than likely take a point here given Frankfurt's positive week but they'll have to be prepared to face an attack who do like to test the opposition defence. Their 34 total attempts to score in the draw with Freiburg (yes, that's not a typo, they had 34 attempts of which 16 were on target) is an indicator of just how unfair that final result was.

Of course, 34 attempts is a remarkably high number but it's worth remembering that Frankfurt are a side who regularly post high shots counts. Their total shots per game average puts them in third in the Bundesliga - only Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig can boast more.

The average stands at 15.2 per 90 minutes; that counts everything from shots on target, off target, blocked en route to goal and those that hit the woodwork. That average is built on the fact that they do make attempts against teams at or towards the bottom. While Dusseldorf have proven a difficult opponent for them to dominate, there were 20 shots against Paderborn and 25 in the first meeting between these two teams.

Bremen's average of 14.9 shots conceded per game puts them in fourth with Paderborn and Dusseldorf two of the sides facing fewer. More often that not, teams are seeing more shots posted against Bremen than their fellow strugglers.

I'm sceptical in backing the high number of goals that we have seen across the most recent Bundesliga fixtures but the odds on Frankfurt's total shots do provide some intriguing value for a team that can clearly hit high numbers when the game allows it.

This could well end up being a game that does finish 0-0 as that would suit Bremen nicely, although the win would be ideal. However, Frankfurt could face relegation troubles of their own and a win, alongside a positive attacking performance, would give them significant breathing space.

I'm willing to take the big odds available in the Frankfurt shots market based on what we have seen from them this season; particularly against the teams at the bottom end of the table. Sky Bet's price of 11/2 on the away side having 18+ total shots, that being any shot intending on finding the net and not just the ones on target, is worth a small play.

It's a bet that is somewhat reliant on the flow of the game but the price available is just too good to turn down. If Frankfurt look to play on the front foot, and even if this Bremen defence look to frustrate, it will become a game where the away side see their shot count continue to rise.

The Asian Handicap has this game at 0 currently so the money is unsure about which way the contest will go. I have my doubts about how sustainable this good form for Bremen is; Frankfurt seem better equipped to take the three points on offer.

Score prediction: Werder Bremen 0-2 Eintracht Frankfurt (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Best bet: Eintracht Frankfurt to have 18+ total shots at 11/2

Odds correct at 0850 BST (02/06/20)

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