Free betting tips and match preview: Europa League - Sevilla v Inter Milan
The Europa League final takes place on Friday night with Sevilla facing Inter. Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Ashley Young to score anytime at 12/1
1pt Diego Carlos to have 3+ tackles at 7/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Sevilla v Inter
- Europa League final - 20:00 BST - BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Sevilla 5/2 | Draw 12/5 | Inter 11/10
Those of you who backed our outright Europa League selection may be tempted to side with Inter here in an attempt to create a 'win-win' situation, but the Italian giants are the odds-on favourites to lift the trophy on Friday evening.
Sevilla were a 14/1 each-way suggestion back in September and they are now a much shorter 5/4 for success in Europe's second competition. That is somewhat surprising given their tougher route to the final.
The LaLiga outfit had to overcome Roma before beating Premier League opposition in Wolves and then Manchester United. This is Sevilla's competition, they've managed to master it in recent seasons, winning three of the last four they've been involved in.
It has to be acknowledged that United enjoyed the better of the chances in their semi-final meeting and were denied by both a superb goalkeeping performance and poor finishing. That said, Sevilla still posted an xG of 1.26; they took the chances that they had created.
24 hours later, we witnessed Inter brush aside Shakhtar with a huge 5-0 victory. Had their opponents converted an easy chance at 1-0, perhaps the outcome would have been completely different. There's no room for 'what ifs' in knockout football and Inter displayed their dominance to punish the Ukrainian side.
Lautaro Martinez and Romelu Lukaku were the headline grabbers with a brace each in that 5-0 thrashing but there is huge appeal in taking the 12/1 available on Ashley Young finding the net anytime in this contest.
This price fluctuates massively between bookmakers, with some still pricing him up as if he was playing in a left-back role as we witnessed at Manchester United. He has been playing in a similar position in the Europa League, but utilising him as a left midfielder in Serie A highlights how they want to make the most of his attacking threat.
Inter will likely stick with three central defenders and rely on wing-backs to provide the width, which Young does on the left, but his heatmap from the wins over Shakhtar and Bayer Leverkusen highlight how he is spending more time with the ball in the opposition half. He's playing more like a left midfielder as opposed to a left-back.
It's a big price of course but this is a player who has found the net on multiple occasions this season, four in all competitions for Inter, and while he may be better recognised for his assists given the wide position, he does pose a significant threat of his own. In a game that could well be open, although not necessarily high-scoring, Young is worth a small play at 12/1.
The 12/1 won't be available everywhere but other firms have him at 17/2, 7/1 and 13/2. Given how Sevilla have seen 41% of their attacks in the Europa League come from the right side, as opposed to 34% from the left, they could well be caught out and Inter may capitalise down their left side.
It should be acknowledged that Inter take the majority of their shots from central areas. Only Porto, Ajax, Young Boys and Gent had a higher average percentage for shots from the middle in the Europa League this season. In total, Inter have seen 72% of their efforts come through central positions.
They also sit in sixth for attacks through the middle and that's why it could be a busy evening for Diego Carlos. The Sevilla centre-back tends to see a higher tackle count when they come up against tougher opposition.
He had two successful tackles in the semi-final success over Manchester United while there were three in meetings against Barcelona and Real Madrid. Their contest with Atletico Madrid had two. It's worth a play on three or more successful tackle for Carlos here with a price of 7/2 available - the opponent may well suit this area of his game.
I've found myself sitting on the fence for some of the European ties in this format but this does have the feel of a game which will require longer than 90 minutes. Both sides have quality in attack, but there may be some reluctance given the occasion.
A draw is priced at 12/5 which looks the most appealing of the outright options available. The Asian Handicap sitting at just -0.25 in Inter's favour shows how the money is behind a close contest in which both teams are odds-against in 90 minutes. Here's hoping we'll be celebrating a 14/1 antepost winner by the end of the evening.
Score prediction: Sevilla 1-1 Inter (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: Ashley Young to score anytime at 12/1
Best bet: Diego Carlos to have 3+ tackles at 7/2
Opta facts
- This is the first ever European meeting between Sevilla and Internazionale – it is the sixth time in 11 seasons of the UEFA Europa League that the two teams in the final are meeting for the first time ever in a European competition, with the last occasion the 2015-16 final, when Sevilla beat Liverpool 3-1.
- Sevilla are the most successful side in UEFA Cup/Europa League history, reaching the final (six times including 2019-20) and winning the competition (five times) on more occasions than any other side.
- Inter have reached their 10th major UEFA European final, and their first since the 2010 UEFA Champions League final, when they won 2-0 against Bayern Munich. They are the ninth team overall to reach 10 major UEFA finals, and the third Italian side after AC Milan and Juventus (both 14 finals).
- Sevilla have lifted the trophy in each of their five appearances in UEFA finals (UEFA Cup/Europa League & European Cup/Champions League) – only Liverpool (six between 1972-73 and 1983-84) and Real Madrid (nine between 1984-85 and 2017-18 – an ongoing run) have won more consecutive such finals.
- Inter have won all five of their UEFA Europa League matches this season and are looking to win six major UEFA European matches in a row for only the second time (six between December 2009 and April 2010).
- Sevilla have never lost a single game knockout match (not played over two legs) in UEFA Cup/Europa League history (P8 W6 D2), winning each of their last five such matches, including two finals.
- Antonio Conte and Julen Lopetegui are both managing in their first ever major UEFA finals. They are two of the six managers to have managed at least 10 games in the UEFA Europa League with a win ratio of 70% or more – Conte’s is second-best (P13 W10, 77%) and Lopetegui’s is fourth-best (P11 W8, 73%).
- Sevilla are currently enjoying their longest unbeaten run across all competitions in the club’s history (P20 W11 D9); among LaLiga clubs, only Real Madrid have had a longer unbeaten run this season (21 games between October and February).
- Inter striker Romelu Lukaku has scored in each of his last seven European matches for Inter, scoring eight times and assisting four goals in those matches too. In all competitions, Lukaku has scored 33 goals this season, the most by an Inter player since Samuel Eto’o scored 37 in 2010-11.
- In the semi-final, Suso and Luuk de Jong became the 10th and 11th different scorers for Sevilla in this seasons UEFA Europa League – excluding own goals, only Manchester United (12) have had more different scorers.
Odds correct as of 1600 BST on 20/08/20
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