Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Trees too Tricky
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
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Round 40 predictions
- Blackburn 0-2 Newcastle
- Luton 0-2 Man City
- Chelsea 1-1 Leeds
- N Forest 2-1 Man Utd
- Wolves 1-3 Brighton
- Liverpool 2-1 Southampton
Trees too tricky
- Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United
- BBC One: Wednesday, 19:45 GMT
Nottingham Forest beat Manchester United in this league fixture not long ago, and they were by far the better team on the day, showing they are well suited under Nuno Espirito Santo to deal with the Red Devils. Since he took over the Tricky Trees have scored 24 times in 13 outings, creating chances on a regular basis so are more than capable of breaking down a vulnerable United backline.
Erik ten Hag's men were poor in defeat at home to Fulham and continue to ship chances and goals. Across their last five league games they have allowed 1.76 xGA per game, and with limited attacking options, could exit the competition here.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Magpies too good
- Blackburn vs Newcastle
- BBC One: Tuesday, 19:45 GMT
Blackburn are winless in John Eustace's four games in charge, and now face their toughest task since his appointment. They have struggled immensely to create chances in those four matches, averaging just 0.74 xGF per game.
Newcastle were battered at Arsenal at the weekend, but had won four straight away games prior to taking on a title challenger. They have already seen off Sunderland and Fulham on the road in the FA Cup, both without conceding.
Score prediction: Blackburn 0-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Hapless Hatters
- Luton vs Manchester City
- ITV1: Tuesday, 20:00 GMT
Luton may have had nearly a week off ahead of this game, but their good run of form looks a distant memory. After going six unbeaten, winning three, they have lost three in a row, including their last two home games - one of which came against Sheffield United.
Pep Guardiola's Manchester City side are again on 'treble watch', and are on a 17 game unbeaten run which has seen them win 15 times. The Citizens are rolling, and while their last few results haven't been blowout wins, they have been controlled. Nine straight away wins with 22 scored and eight conceded, they should make it 10 here.
Score prediction: Luton 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Whites to take it the distance
- Chelsea vs Leeds
- ITV4: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
Can Chelsea recover in time from the weekend Carabao Cup final heartbreak for this match? That is the main question as they take on a Leeds side flying high and full of confidence. They have been inconsistent this season to say the least, and their last game at Stamford Bridge saw them lose 4-2 to Wolves.
Leeds are the best defensive team in the Championship according to the underlying data and are on a 12-game unbeaten run. The Whites possess plenty of attacking firepower to hurt their Premier League opponents, and can take the game to extra time.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Seagulls to step up
- Wolves vs Brighton
- BBC iPlayer: Wednesday, 19:45 GMT
Wolves are an extremely dangerous opponent for any side at the moment, and are a team in form, winning eight of their last 15 in all competitions. However, their open and expansive nature could see them caught out by a Brighton side who thrive when given space.
Their two meetings this season finished 4-1 to Brighton at Molineux before a goalless draw at the Amex, the Seagulls out-creating their opponents in both contests. Recent form hasn't been great, but performances are improving, as are their injury worries.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-3 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Reds riding the wave
- Liverpool vs Southampton
- ITV: Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
Carabao Cup champions Liverpool will be severely undermanned ahead of this game due to injuries, meaning we could see more youngsters for Jurgen Klopp's side. But, the Reds will be playing in front of a raucous Anfield where they have won 18 of an unbeaten 20 this season.
Southampton have lost some form at the wrong time, losing three of their last four, seeing their Championship automatic promotion hopes take a hit. The Saints have been especially leaky of late, conceding 10 in their last five, which spells trouble ahead of this game.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
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