Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Madrid to roll
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
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Round 42 predictions
- Man City 2-0 Copenhagen
- Real Madrid 3-1 RB Leipzig
- Southampton 3-1 Preston
- Middlesbrough 1-1 Norwich
- Watford 1-2 Swansea
- QPR 1-1 West Brom
Cosy City win
- Manchester City vs Copenhagen (agg: 3-1)
- TNT Sport 1: Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
Manchester City have more than one foot in the quarter finals after a dominant display in Denmark (xG: COP 0.26 - 3.44 MCI). They, in theory, should be able to rotate heavily here ahead of a mammoth clash with Liverpool in the Premier League on Sunday, which could mean the score is kept down.
Copenhagen are unlikely to cause many issues for the reigning champions in this second leg, even if Pep makes changes.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Copenhagen (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Madrid to roll past RB
- Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig (agg: 1-0)
- TNT Sport 2: Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
In theory, the state of this tie should play right into Real Madrid's hands, with Leipzig having to chase and leaving their illustrious hosts plenty of space to operate. That should allow the likes of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo to cause all sorts of problems for their visitors.
The Germans aren't the best travellers either, winning just three of their last 10 away games in all competitions, losing five, but they should get on the scoresheet in what will likely be an open game.
Score prediction: Real Madrid 3-1 RB Leipzig (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Possession problem
- Southampton vs Preston
- Sky Sports (red button): Wednesday, 19:45 GMT
This is a game between two teams who play in polar opposite ways. Southampton like to dominate the ball and tire you out through possession, Preston are happy to sit deep and frustrate, picking their moments to counter. Saints rank first for possession (67.1%), Preston 17th (44.4%).
We know what we are going to get here then, and if this game were at Deepdale, I would be all over North End getting a result. But their record away against the top 10 Championship teams in terms of possession is rotten. They have played eight and lost seven. Their record at home against such sides is much better (W5, D3, L1).
Score prediction: Southampton 3-1 Preston (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Honours even on Teeside
- Middlesbrough vs Norwich
- Sky Sports (red button): Wednesday, 19:45 GMT
Middlesbrough are just six points above the relegation zone, believe it or not, and have won just one of their last seven in the league - a victory at leaders Leicester. Their last two losses have come against teams below them in the table, with performances shocking.
Norwich continued their charge with a win over Sunderland last time out, leaving them one point outside the top six. Their away form is a concern though, losing eight of 17 and winning just four. This could be all square.
Score prediction: Middlesbrough 1-1 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Swans surprise
- Watford vs Swansea
- Sky Sports (red button): Wednesday, 19:45 GMT
Watford are in freefall. The Hornets are 12th in the table but only six points above the drop zone, and welcome Swansea on a run of one win in 10 in all competitions (six defeats).
It's a different story for the Swans, who have won three of their last five, losing only to promotion chasing Leeds and Ipswich. They are trending positively, and can take advantage of the negative atmosphere at Vicarage Road to register another win.
Score prediction: Watford 1-2 Swansea (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Level at Loftus Road
- QPR vs West Brom
- Sky Sports Football: Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
QPR have won three straight to keep their heads above water, but the R's remain out of the drop zone on goal difference only. They did a real number on Leicester at the weekend, limiting the Foxes to just 1.04 xGF, and that defensive solidity doesn't appear to be a one-off.
West Brom are one of the stronger home sides in the league, but have struggled away. Carlos Corberan's side have won five and lost seven of their 17 road, matches. This could be a close encounter, and picking a winner is tough.
Score prediction: QPR 1-1 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
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