Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Gunners get a result at Anfield
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
After no one won the last two Super 6 jackpots, the prize has rolled over, meaning this weekend's pre-Christmas Round 26 prize is a whopping £1million. What a Christmas present that would be eyy!
The slate couldn't be tougher, with five of the six games extremely tough to call from a result perspective, never mind picking a correct score...
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Round 26 predictions
- Tottenham 2-2 Everton
- Luton 2-1 Newcastle
- N Forest 0-2 Bournemouth
- Fulham 2-0 Burnley
- Leicester 2-0 Rotherham
- Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal
Gunner get something
- Liverpool vs Arsenal
- Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Liverpool were dominant against Manchester United, but disappointing in the final third, seemingly being way too trigger-happy. They racked up an xG of 2.38 via an accumulation of small chances - some 34 shots for an xG per shot average of just 0.07. That won't cut it.
In fact, this looks to be becoming a trend. Across their last four league games they have taken 89 shots with an xG total of 7.55. That's an xG per shot of 0.08. They are being limited impressively by middling opponents, as don't forget they have played Fulham, Sheffield United, Crystal Palace and Manchester United.
Arsenal rank as the league's best defence overall this season (0.92 xGA per game), and away from home (0.96), so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Gunners halt a stumbling Reds attack, especially as they tend to play more conservatively on the road.
They have the capability to nullify the Reds and cause problems on the break for their opponents, especially with Liverpool having played midweek, but this could be the second straight Anfield game that fails to live up to the billing as a 'blockbuster' contest.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Sticky Toffee Point
- Tottenham vs Everton
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Tottenham have steadied the ship following a run of four defeats and a draw, winning their last two against a knackered Newcastle team and a poor Forest side. The latter victory saw them lose Yves Bissouma, a key player in midfield, for four games through suspension, which could prove problematic for Spurs over the Christmas period - starting here.
Everton are one of the form teams in the league right now, and head down south on the back of four straight wins, all without conceding. Sean Dyche's men rank as the seventh best team in the entire division on underlying data, meaning this is a stern test for a Spurs team who we know play all-out-attacking football but are defensively vulnerable.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
An upset at the Kenny?
- Luton vs Newcastle
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Luton's home and away process is polar opposite. At home they have averaged 1.28 xGF and 1.87 xGA per game while away from Kenilworth Road they have averaged 0.99 xGF and 3.20 xGA per game. They are better at both ends of the pitch when playing hosts, and that is despite five of their eight home games coming against teams in the top eight.
Newcastle sit seventh and their away record (W1 D2 L5) is shocking compared to their near flawless home results (W8 L1). The Magpies played midweek in the Carabao Cup, another extra game for a stretched squad, and they have definitely been saving their best for St James' Park.
Eddie Howe's side have shipped 1.89 xGA per game on their travels, so Luton have a real fighting chance of claiming a scalp and picking up three points after what has been a difficult week for the club.
Score prediction: Luton 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Cherries on top
- Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Nottingham Forest have won just one of their last 13 league games, a run that has seen them slip to fourth-bottom, just five points above Luton, and it is a run that has ultimately meant the end for Steve Cooper.
They have really struggled in attack for a long while, averaging just 1.01 xGF per game, missing Taiwo Awoniyi massively, meaning new manager Nuno Espirito Santo may struggle to get his side creating from the off.
Bournemouth have been one of the best teams in the league since the start of November. They have collected the second most xP per game in that time (2.06), posted the second best defensive process (1.13 xGA per game) and the fourth best attacking process (2.15 xGF per game). This looks another good opportunity for the Cherries to get another win.
Score prediction: N Forest 0-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Cosy Cottage
- Fulham vs Burnley
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Fulham were pummeled last weekend by Newcastle, but that can be attributed to the early red card for Raul Jimenez. At the time of his dismissal (21st minute), the scoreline was 0-0 and the xG totals were 0.08-0.04. Newcastle ended racking up a 3-0 win and 3.51 xG.
Back to home comforts though and Marco Silva's side can register another big win at the Cottage. They have scored 13 goals in three successive home victories, creating an abundance of chances while looking more assured at the back. Burnley travel to the big smoke with an away xG process of 0.79 xGF and 2.04 xGA per game, not at all ideal.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Cruise control
- Leicester vs Rotherham
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
This game pits the best team in the Sky Bet Championship against the worst, according to both the actual and expected tables. A home win looks a formality, the question is; just how many do Leicester win by?
Well, given the fact the Foxes have conceded only six times at the King Power and Rotherham - winless away - have scored only six times in 11 road games this season, a home clean sheet looks incredibly likely. Just 20 goals scored in 11 at home for Leicester could mean a lower scoreline than many expect.
Score prediction: Leicester 2-0 Rotherham (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
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