Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Eagles over Seagulls
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
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Round 34 predictions
- Newcastle 3-1 Luton
- Brighton 1-2 Crystal Palace
- Burnley 1-1 Fulham
- Sheff Utd 1-3 Aston Villa
- Man Utd 1-1 West Ham
- Arsenal 1-2 Liverpool
Eagles over Seagulls
- Brighton vs Crystal Palace
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
These are the games Brighton struggle with, games against teams who don't want the ball. Over their last seven league games they have won once, drawn four and lost two, failing to beat any of Luton, Wolves, West Ham, Crystal Palace or Burnley, despite averaging 67% possession against those opponents.
Palace held them at Selhurst by sitting off and frustrating, and we should see similar again here, but maybe with more firepower for the Eagles, who should have Michael Olise, Eberechi Eze and Jordan Ayew all available. They can spring an upset.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-2 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Not Gunner stop the Reds
- Arsenal vs Liverpool
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
Arsenal must not lose this game, but I think they will. Not because they are playing badly as such, but I think Liverpool have hit another gear that Gunners are yet to reach. The Reds look solid at the back, controlled and dynamic in midfield and intense and fluid in attack.
They have scored four times in all of their last three league games, and not against poor sides, they've hammered Newcastle, Bournemouth and Chelsea. Arsenal are a step up defensively on that trio, but it's hard to watch Klopp's side and not think they will score at least twice at the Emirates.
Arsenal have steadied the ship after a bad run, winning their last two, but their defence continues to look wobbly, and this could be the weekend they exit the title race as a result.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Hammer time
- Manchester United vs West Ham
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
Manchester United looked good against Wolves in midweek, well for 75 minutes at least. After that it was panic stations, and they were lucky to come away with three points thanks to a wonderful goal from Kobbie Mainoo. Defensively they remain especially frail, shown by their xGA per game average of 1.78.
Their attacking performance was a step in the right direction though, but this game against a West Ham team happy to sit and frustrate is a completely different test to a Wolves team happy to commit men. The Hammers rightly shared the points with Bournemouth in midweek and fairly recently displayed their capabilities against United in what was a suffocating performance. I think they get a result at Old Trafford.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Geordie bounce
- Newcastle vs Luton
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Newcastle sprang back into life in midweek, winning convincingly away at Aston Villa (xG: AVL 1.46 - 2.63 NEW), a performance and result that suggests they could be set for a strong second half of the season. They have been excellent at home all season long, winning eight of 11, averaging 2.62 xGF and 1.17 xGA per game.
Luton also picked up a huge win in midweek, thrashing Brighton 4-0 to move out of the relegation zone. Away from home they have a W2, D2, L6 record, but have allowed a whopping 3.07 xGA per game, suggesting it'll be tough for them to get a result at St James' Park.
Score prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Luton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
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A Villa reaction
- Sheffield United vs Aston Villa
- Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Villa's form has been worrying of late, with performances dipping, but this game could provide them with a great chance of a bounce-back win. Sheffield United have started throwing the kitchen sink under Chris Wilder, which has led to them looking more dangerous in attack but even more vulnerable at the back.
Goals have flown of late as a result, five in defeat at Crystal Palace, four in a home draw against a depleted West Ham, five in a home defeat to Luton, so if this game follows suit, the side with the more quality in attack - Villa - should outscore their hosts.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1-3 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Tight at Turf
- Burnley vs Fulham
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Yes, Burnley's home form is bad (W1 D1 L9), but they have faced a tough schedule at Turf Moor, hosting seven of the current top 10 - all of which ended in defeat. Against bottom half teams they have W1, D1 and L2, but overall have shown signs of improvement of late.
Fulham have collected just six points away this season (W1, D3, L7), struggling to create (0.85 xGF per game) while looking vulnerable at the back (2.28 xGA per game), so this looks a decent opportunity for the Clarets to pick up a point.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
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