Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Chaos at Villa Park
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
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Round 35 predictions
- Tottenham 3-2 Brighton
- Liverpool 3-0 Burnley
- Wolves 2-1 Brentford
- N Forest 1-2 Newcastle
- West Ham 1-2 Arsenal
- Aston Villa 2-2 Man Utd
Chaos incoming
- Aston Villa vs Manchester United
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
This game has all the hallmarks of a cracker. The pair played eachother on Boxing Day with United edging a five goal thriller, coming from 2-0 down in that one. Both teams' form has been patchy since - both going W2, D1, L1 - but goals have continued to flow.
Across the last five league games Villa's matches have averaged 3.8 goals per game, with United's at 4.4! Neither can defend overly well, both want to play attacking football and both have quality individuals at the top end of the pitch that, when provided with the kind of space they should see here, can score bags of goals.
What also makes this game interesting is that there are just eight points between the sides, who sit fourth and sixth currently. A United win all of a sudden makes it 'game-on' in the hunt for Champions League football, while a Villa win firmly shuts the door. That should lead to more chances being taken by the pair.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
A basketball match
- Tottenham vs Brighton
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
This could be a fun game between two teams who play with the handbrake off, and who are happy to be involved in open games with plenty of space. In Spurs' last five games there have been 23 goals scored, and we could see plenty more here.
I lean towards Spurs edging proceedings. They have won eight of 11 home games and averaged 2.25 xGF per home game, and now welcome back Yves Bissouma and Heung-min Son. They are full strength for the first time in ages. Brighton's defence is a concern, especially away from home where they have shipped 1.80 xGA per game and lost five of 11.
Score prediction: Tottenham 3-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Anfield cruise
- Liverpool vs Burnley
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Liverpool were poor last week against Arsenal, and they need to bounce back quickly. Luckily, Burnley visit Anfield this weekend.
The Clarets have allowed 2.05 xGA per away game this season, remain second bottom of the table and head to the best home team in the land who are averaging just shy of 3.0 xGF per home game. Yikes.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Gunners revenge
- West Ham vs Arsenal
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
This fixture last season was the one that saw Arsenal unravel. They were 2-0 up, missed a penalty and then drew 2-2. From then on they never looked like winning the league. These two sides are a little different now, the Gunners much better with a stronger spine more ready to deal with the battle at the London Stadium.
The Hammers' form has dipped greatly, winless in four, and their defeat at Manchester United last weekend was a bad performance. They have the tools to cause problems for the visitors here, but it is worth noting that David Moyes' side are in a false position. They sit seventh in the league table but 12th on expected points (xP), so a second half of season struggle that results in a slide wouldn't come as a surprise.
As for Arsenal, they have won six of 11 away, averaging 1.70 xGF and 0.98 xGA per game. Trustworthy enough if you ask me.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
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No buzz for Bees
- Wolves vs Brentford
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Wolves are fun. That much we know by now. A stellar 4-2 win over Chelsea last weekend followed a heart-breaking 4-3 defeat to Manchester United, and I would be shocked if goals didn't flow again here.
Gary O'Neil's side have won five and drawn three of their last nine home games, so are a force at Molineux, and welcome back their top-scorer Hwang Hee-chan from the Asian Cup, so should prove too strong for a Brentford team more than capable of scoring but who continue to miss key players.
Score prediction: Wolves 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Tiredness to hurt Tricky Trees
- Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle
- Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Nottingham Forest sit just two points above the relegation zone following a winless three match run, cancelling out the immediate upturn in results that came after Nuno's appointment. A midweek cup tie that went to penalties is hardly ideal preparation for this game, especially as the Tricky Trees played some key starters from the off - Morgan Gibbs-White in particular played the full 120.
This should be seen as a huge opportunity for Newcastle, who are getting back players back fit and who have scored seven times in their last two league games, including three in a dominant win at Aston Villa. If Forest were coming into this off a free week, I may be looking at them avoiding defeat, but their likely tiredness coupled with more positive showings from Howe's men has me leaning away win.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
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