Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: A City shellacking
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
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Round 41 predictions
- Nottingham Forest 1-2 Liverpool
- Tottenham 2-1 Crystal Palace
- Brentford 1-1 Chelsea
- Luton 1-2 Aston Villa
- Burnley 0-2 Bournemouth
- Man City 5-0 Man Utd
A question of how many
- Manchester City vs Manchester United
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 15:30 GMT
This could be a heavy defeat for Manchester United. They are depleted, defensively vulnerable and lacking ideas and personnel in attack, while City are rolling, fully fit and looking to win back-to-back trebles. United have won seven of 13 away this term, but their performances have been shocking, averaging 1.55 xGF and 1.85 xGA per game - that latter figure incredibly worrying.
City are unbeaten in 18 across all competitions, winning 16 of those, and with a 3-1 aggregate lead over Copenhagen in the Champions League ahead of the second leg on Wednesday, will likely field a full-strength side here.
That could mean we see a demolition job, with Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland rediscovering their partnership in the last few weeks. After his four assists in midweek, De Bruyne has now assisted 11 goals in 553 minutes of action since his return from injury - that's an average of 1.79 assists per 90 minutes!
It could get ugly on Sunday.
Score prediction: Manchester City 5-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)
Reds are rolling
- Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Liverpool, and their youngsters, are not going anywhere. Jurgen Klopp's table toppers have shown they can deal with major injury set-backs, but should welcome back a couple of starters for this game, which will likely see them continue the winning run.
Nuno's Nottingham Forest have struggled against better sides at home of late, losing to all of Arsenal, Newcastle and Manchester United. Their defensive issues are a concern, conceding 1.60 xGA per game and 2.0 goals per game under the Portuguese coach.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Spurs to win, just
- Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Crystal Palace have impressed since Oliver Glasner took over, a draw and a win moving them eight points clear of trouble. Their performance against Burnley was good, with the Eagles showing plenty of attacking intent even without Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze - though the latter could be fit here.
They have the capability to make this a difficult afternoon for Spurs, who were poor in their last home game when losing to Wolves. They have won nine of 13 in front of their own fans though, averaging 2.20 xGF per game, so should create enough to put Palace away, though it may not be comfortable.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Bees to hold Blues
- Brentford vs Chelsea
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Brentford are in a relegation battle, for now. Thomas Frank's men have performed well despite a tough schedule and poor results. They have won one and lost five of their last six, but have played Manchester City twice, Liverpool, Spurs and two other top nine sides. They could be set for an upturn soon.
Mauricio Pochettino is a man under pressure after last weekend's Carabao Cup final defeat. He could be under more pressure after the weekend, with the Blues having a rotten away record of late. Their last 10 away have seen them lose six times and win only three and concede 20.
Score prediction: Brentford 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Villa on the charge
- Luton vs Aston Villa
- Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Luton's upturn in form is over. Not only that, but Everton's eased punishment means they are now four points from safety. While they have kept games close at Kenilworth Road this season, ultimately their record is shocking (W3 D2 L8), with Rob Edwards' men allowing 1.89 xGA per game.
Aston Villa look to be back on song after a festive wobble, winning three of their last four, scoring 12 and generating 10.7 xGF. They should have enough to carve open the Hatters a couple of times and register another victory in their quest to secure Champions League football.
Score prediction: Luton 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Cherries down Clarets
- Burnley vs Bournemouth
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 13:30 GMT
11 points from safety with 12 games to go, it looks like Burnley will be playing in the Championship next season. They have been abysmal this term, losing 19 of their 26, averaging 0.97 xGF and 1.93 xGA per game, with their home record of W1 D2 L10 comfortably the worst in the division.
Bournemouth have stalled somewhat after an excellent run of six wins in an unbeaten seven, following that with a winless seven game stretch. The schedule in the most recent run has been tough, and they have shown more than enough to suggest they can go to Turf Moor and get back to winning ways.
Score prediction: Burnley 0-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
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