Super 6 tips and correct score predictions: Wednesday, 21 April
Our expert tipsters have their Super 6 correct score predictions for Wednesday's round of action - with the first games starting at 18:00 BST.
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- TOTTENHAM v Southampton (18:00 BST)
- Aston Villa v Manchester City: DRAW (20:15 BST)
- Millwall v BOURNEMOUTH (18:00 BST)
- Huddersfield v BARNSLEY
- Luton v Reading: DRAW
- BIRMINGHAM v Nottingham Forest
Games kick off at 19:45 BST on unless stated otherwise
Correct score: Tottenham 2-1 Southampton
The news that broke on Monday was one of surprise, as Tottenham sacked Jose Mourinho just days before this game and of course the Carabao Cup final. Tottenham were again vulnerable defensively last weekend against Everton, but are playing a blunt Southampton attack who have struggled greatly all season.
Ralph Hasenhuttl's FA Cup semi-finalists have won just one of their last 14 league games, losing 12 of them, and their expected goals against (xGA) per away game figure of 1.84 is staggeringly high.
Even if they are missing Harry Kane, this Tottenham team should be able to create enough chances to win this game, but defensively Spurs are all over the place, so a home win with both teams scoring is fancied.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Correct score: Aston Villa 1-1 Manchester City
Aston Villa come into this game well rested, having not played since the 10th April, so have had 11 days off. The same can't be said for Manchester City, who have played three times during Villa's mini hiatus, and Pep's side have a cup final looming.
The 'will he, won't he' regarding Jack Grealish's fitness should be put to bed now, and the England international can provide the attacking spark that his side have so desperately missed over the last few months.
Villa average a strong 1.88 expected goals for (xGF) per home game, so should breach City, and the hosts are fancied to get a point, with the champions-elects' focus being elsewhere this week.
Correct score: Millwall 1-2 Bournemouth
Millwall's play-off hopes are all but over after a goalless draw with Brentford, a game in which they created very little in attack. Their home form has been strong this term, but they face a Bournemouth team on a roll here.
The Cherries have won six straight in the Championship, conceding in four in some really entertaining tussles. Their attacking talent is now being allowed to flourish, with chance after chance being created at the Vitality Stadium.
An away win looks likely here, as the visitors look to seal their play-off place.
Correct score: Huddersfield 0-1 Barnsley
Huddersfield eased any relegation fears by beating Nottingham Forest 2-0 at the weekend, leaving them eight points above the drop zone. They haven't been bad at home this term, but still possess a negative xG process, meaning that on average, they allow more quality chances than they create.
Barnsley had a disappointing result at the weekend that saw the gap between themselves and seventh placed Reading cut to 4 points, making this a huge game. The Tykes have been solid on the road this term, averaging 1.35 xGF and 1.15 xGA per match.
That defensive figure is the seventh best in the league when looking solely at road games, so I'm backing them to keep their Yorkshire rivals at bay in a narrow win.
Correct score: Luton 1-1 Reading
Despite not playing for anything, Luton are finishing the season with a flourish, coming into this one on the back of a thoroughly impressive win over Watford in which they dominated according to xG (LUT 2.31 - 0.23 WAT). That was their fourth win in six, and underlying data backs up those results, so they should fancy their chances against a faltering Reading.
The Royals have won just one of their last seven matches in the Championship, a run that has seen them slip out of the play-offs and now in desperate need of three points. Chances and goals have been very limited in their away matches this season, with Reading averaging 1.12 xGF and 0.98 xGA per away game.
In what is a tough one to call, a draw looks the safest play, with Luton's recent attacking displays making this prediction 1-1 rather than 0-0.
Correct score: Birmingham 1-0 Nottm Forest
Birmingham have surged clear of the relegation zone, collecting 13 points from a possible 18 since the arrival of Lee Bowyer. They have won all three of their home games under Bowyer, doing an incredible job defensively, allowing an average of just 0.41 xGA per game. Even more impressive, they have done that against two of the top seven.
Nottingham Forest' season has petered out, but they continue to be tough to beat. Just two defeats in seven is a decent run, with Chris Hughton's defence-first approach baring some sort of reward.
They have, however, been poor offensively in that time, struggling to create chances on a regular basis.
With Forest looking blunt and Blues looking solid, a home win to nil looks the way in.
Odds correct at 12:50 BST (15/04/21)
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