Free football betting tips: Premier League preview & best bets - Southampton v Everton, Arsenal v Leicester, Wolves v Newcastle
Away from the Super Sunday clash at Molineux, Southampton face Everton and Arsenal host Leicester. Joe Townsend has best bets for both games.
Recommended bets
1pt Everton to beat Southampton and over 2.5 goals at 3/1
1pt Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score a header in Everton v Southampton at 9/2
1pt Arsenal -3 corner handicap v Leicester at 11/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Arsenal v Leicester
- 7.15pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports Box Office
- Match odds: Home 10/11 | Draw 11/4 | Away 11/4
Arsenal continue to make steady progress under Mikel Arteta, and should take huge pride from the fact Manchester City were content to play for a reserved 1-0 win against them last weekend.
A stunning start saw them romp to three wins, culminating in a 5-2 thrashing of Man City, but Leicester hit the buffers with successive home defeats by West Ham and Aston Villa. An assured performance from £30m defender Wesley Fofana in Thursday's 3-0 win over Zorya was timely after news that Caglar Soyuncu could be out for three months.
The Gunners are rightly just about odds-on for this contest, with Leicester hovering around the 3/1 mark. The relative change in circumstances at each club is reflected by their pre-match odds for this fixture back in July, when there was little split to them - a late Jamie Vardy equaliser saw it finish 1-1 that day.
Given the sides' respective recent form it isn't smart to back Leicester, despite their tempting odds. Arsenal are unbeaten at home in 2020 and have only lost one league game at the Emirates under Arteta - his first. Although they've been excellent on their own patch, keeping clean sheets there hasn't been a strong suit with it six matches since they last did so.
Arsenal win to nil at 11/4 offers value given the Foxes' recent struggles, but it's something I'm steering clear from because of their returning injured players. James Maddison and Jamie Vardy, the duo most crucial to their attack, should be back for Sunday's game. Even with just the former, they looked closer to themselves in their midweek Europa League win.
I don't think there is enough there for us in under/over goals or both teams to score, and while I fancy Arsenal I do believe these are two very evenly matched teams. Instead I'm looking at corners.
Vardy's goal in the dying moments of the teams' Project Restart meeting came after Eddie Nketiah had been sent off for the hosts, signalling a total shift in the game. The Gunners sat deep frustrated Leicester up until then, and although both managers made plenty of changes Arsenal successfully used the same tactics in a Carabao Cup tie at the King Power earlier this term to win 2-0.
A counter-attacking style led to Arsenal dominating the corner count 10-1 and 7-1 in each game - a huge shift from the teams overall position in the Premier League's corner table, which has Leicester (31) second and Arsenal (21) 13th.
Consequently there are good prices in the corner handicap markets with William Hill and Bet Victor. What I think balances value and risk best is the 11/4 on offer from the latter with Arsenal -3.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Southampton v Everton
- 2pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 17/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 6/4
This has the hallmarks of being a really good contest. Southampton have picked up of late after a slow start to the season, backing up wins over Burnley and West Brom by fighting back to draw at Chelsea. They'll be without the man who created their late equaliser, Theo Walcott, as he's ineligible to play against his parent club.
Everton showed their mettle in a 2-2 draw with Merseyside rivals Liverpool last time out, somewhat overshadowed by more noteworthy events at Goodison that day. Virgil van Dijk's injury, courtesy of an unpunished horror challenge from Jordan Pickford, has quite rightly taken the headlines.
But the fact remains that in all competitions Carlo Ancelotti's team have drawn one and won seven games this term. For the Toffees to be such a healthy odds-against for their trip to the south coast does come as a surprise.
While their form has been superb, Everton haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their past six matches. In the league, they've conceded twice in three of their past four fixtures.
An away win and both teams to score at 7/2 looks like a smart play, but it's not significantly better than the 3/1 on offer from Sky Bet for Everton/over 2.5 goals - a bet that provides far more wriggle room.
I just don't see this being a match Ancelotti's side come unstuck in, despite Saints' spirited display at Stamford Bridge.
The Toffees will be without James Rodriguez and captain Seamus Coleman through injury, with Alex Iwobi or Bernard, and Ben Godfrey or Jonjoe Kenny likely replacements. It's the absence of the fantastic Rodriguez that steers me away from Everton/over 3.5 goals, but at 6/1 I wouldn't blame you for taking it especially when those stand-ins are more than capable.
Elsewhere, how do we look beyond Dominic Calvert-Lewin? Despite 10 goals in eight appearances for Everton this season he is a bigger price than Southampton hitman Danny Ings across all goalscorer markets.
Calvert-Lewin's 6/4 anytime odds aren't great, but there are a couple of other options that look very enticing. He is 5/1 to break the deadlock with bet365 and 9/2 to score a header with Sky Bet.
I am going with the latter. Four of seven league goals have come with his head, and he also scored a header on his England debut against Wales earlier this month.
Score prediction: Southampton 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bets:
Mark O'Haire's Super Sunday preview
- Wolves v Newcastle
- 1630 BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match Odds: Home 4/5 | Draw 18/5 | Away 5/2
Wolves welcome Newcastle to Molineux and appear an appealing play. The Old Gold are rated 4/5 shots to seize maximum points – quite a change from the 9/20 that was offered in the same fixture last January. Of course, the lack of home supporters has had an impact on the price, although evidence suggests Wanderers remain as tough as old boots to beat.
On Monday, Nuno’s troops were second-best for large swathes of their showdown at Elland Road, coming to the fore after the interval, a familiar trend to Wolves’ followers last term. Raul Jimenez’s deflected strike proved decisive and his partnership with Daniel Podence will be key to the Old Gold’s hopes of progress as rebuilding work continues.
Newcastle faced 14 shots on-target in their 4-1 defeat at home to Man Utd last time out, and have been comfortably dispatched by Brighton also. The 1-1 draw earned at Tottenham in the Magpies’ most recent road trip was completely unjust and Steve Bruce’s boys have again been defying the data to collect their seven-point haul (W2-D1-L2).
Thus far, Newcastle have averaged only 2.40 shots on-target per-game and somehow managed to convert 57% of their total on-target efforts. That’s a completely unsustainable rate and highlighted further by the fact the visitors are generating only 0.87 non-penalty Expected Goals (xG) on average, another alarming reflection on the Toon’s output.
Wolves won 33 points against the bottom-seven in 2019/20 and should be well capable of collecting top honours here at a decent price. I will be greedy though, and chuck in Under 4.5 Goals to bolster the odds on offer to evens. Only four of the hosts’ 40 Molineux matches in the Premier League under Nuno have concluded with five or more goals.
Score prediction: Wolves 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Wolves to win and Under 4.5 Goals at 1/1
Read Mark O'Haire's Wolves v Newcastle preview in full
Odds correct on 1030 BST (23/10/20)
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