Football betting tips: Serie A, Ligue 1
19:45 – Milan vs Inter
1pt the Draw at 9/4 (General)
19:45 – Lyon vs Paris FC
1.5pts Lyon to win at 4/6 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Marshall Munetsi 1+ Shot on Target at 6/4 (Betway) - min price evs
Milan vs Inter
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1 and DAZN
- Live odds, form and stats
Can we describe this ‘Derby della Madonnina’ as a clash of Serie A title contenders?
It may be 2nd vs 1st at the top of the table, but Inter’s 10-point lead over their city rivals means the outcome of the Scudetto race is all but decided already. The market certainly thinks so: Inter are 1/14 to lift the trophy, while Milan are 16/1.
It should be a thrilling occasion nonetheless, and Inter’s 10-point advantage casts some slivers of doubt over their motivation. Will the ‘visitors’ (they are the nominated away team at San Siro) go all-out to win, or settle for a draw instead?
Whatever their ambitions, Inter’s difficulties against the better sides makes the 5/4 available on an away win unappealing. Cristian Chivu’s side have won just two of the six games they have played against other top Italian teams (Milan, Juventus, Napoli, Roma) so far this season, while the fact they are out of the Champions League before the Round of 16 takes places underlines their frailties when asked to mingle with the best.
Not that Milan, at 13/5, are our pick. They have won 16 of their 27 (59%) Serie A games, but only seven of 13 (54%) at home. And, while they won the reverse fixture 1-0 in November, they are W4-D4-L0 against the other six teams that make up Serie A’s current top seven.
Milan’s high draw rate in the above sample is worth considering. Massimiliano Allegri’s men are hard to beat, but often drop points, while Inter would surely settle for an all-square outcome to maintain their lead at the top.
At 9/4, the DRAW is our selection.
Lyon vs Paris FC
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: Amazon PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
A frustrated and angry LYON are a strong selection TO WIN on Sunday night.
That anger and frustration comes from the fact they were knocked out of the French Cup in dramatic circumstances on Thursday night. Having hauled themselves back from a 2-0 half-time deficit in their quarter-final tie at home to Lens, they went on to lose 5-4 on spot-kicks.
It also comes from their injury-time defeat against Marseille last weekend. Lyon manager Paulo Fonseca felt several officiating decisions went against his players, and was desperately disappointed to see his side concede an injury-time winner having led 1-0 and 2-1.
We expect Lyon to make-up for those setbacks by collecting all three points here. Their longer-term form is excellent – they have won eight of their last 11 Ligue 1 matches (W8-D0-L3) – and they have an impressive W9-D0-L2 home record.
Under new manager Antoine Kombouare, Paris FC will roll up to Groupama Stadium and promptly park the bus. Veteran Kombouare – 25 years and counting in management – took over from sacked Stephane Gilli last week on a mission to save the club from relegation. He began with a typically doughty 1-0 home win over Nice last weekend.
Lyon are an altogether more dangerous proposition, however, and a good bet to win at the odds of 4/6 widely available. The visitors’ task is made all the tougher as star man Ilan Kebbal is suspended. Kebbal is Paris FC’s top scorer and assists provider, meaning they lose so much quality without him.
In Kebbal’s absence, turn to MARSHALL MUNETSI. The Zimbabwe midfielder moved to Paris FC from Wolves in the January window and is thriving.
Playing as a no.8 or no.10, the ex-Reims man has managed 1+ SHOT ON TARGET in each of the three games he has started since returning to Ligue 1, scoring in the most recent two.
Munetsi is 8/1 to score, and 6/4 with Betway to manage yet another shot on target, and we'll back the latter, with anything above even money looking good value. Should any of you have a BetMGM account, they are a standalone 5/2 about this bet.
Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (06/03/26)
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