Football betting tips: Nations League
17:00 - Serbia vs Netherlands
2pts Both Teams To Score at 10/11 (General)
0.5pt Jan Paul van Hecke to score anytime at 9/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
19:45 - Germany vs Greece
1.75pts Younes Ebnoutalib to score anytime at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Konstantinos Mavropanos to score anytime at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred)
***More tips could follow
Serbia vs Netherlands
- Kick-off: Sunday, 17:00 BST
- TV: Amazon Prime PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
The Netherlands played out a feisty, hard-earned draw with rivals Germany to kick off the Xavi era. It was a highly-entertaining contest which should have had far more than the two goals we witnessed.
Cody Gakpo's strike in the second minute of second-half added time prevented the defeat but they should have struck before had it not been for a superb performance from Germany goalkeeper Marc ter Stegen.
Virgil van Dijk had a goal somewhat controversially ruled out prior to Felix Nmecha opening the scoring. While the stats suggest Dutch dominance in front of goal, Germany's wasteful nature and sometimes desire to find one further pass which wasn't there led to them failing to capitalise on great scoring opportunities.
Karim Adeyemi also skied what was virtually an open net not long after they'd hit the front. Going 2-0 up would have likely seen them winning the game.
What the game did highlight is that it was two teams adjusting to new head coaches. The Netherlands looked a huge threat going forward but allowed chances at the other end.
While Serbia may not be on the same level as Germany, BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is still an appealing selection at 10/11 across the board.
They've only played three home games under Veljko Paunović's leadership but they scored in all of them (defeat to Greece on Thursday, victories over Saudi Arabia in March and Latvia last November).
While they're not a team you'd fancy to get anywhere near the latter stages of a major tournament, they're playing the Netherlands at a good time and could capitalise by striking in front of their own supporters.
Serbia's opening defeat to Greece was a shocking home performance, losing 2-1, conceding 26 shots and 2.51 xG. One thing stuck out to me from the game and it was the Serb's set-piece weakness.
Greece racked up 0.55 xG from dead-ball situations in that contest, with both Greek centre-backs firing two shots and one on target. The Netherlands looked incredibly dangerous from set-plays against Germany, having a goal ruled out and racking up 1.23 xG from them.
That looks like a real avenue for success here, and while Virgil van Dijk, who was the man who had a goal ruled out against Germany, is the first name on everyones lips, he's been well found in the market at a best price of 13/2 to score anytime and generally shorter than 5/1.
It is somewhat surprising to see his centre-back parter JAN PAUL VAN HECKE available at nearly double the general price on offer for VVD, with 9/1 for him TO SCORE ANYTIME a cracking bet.
Spurs' centre-back went into the international break having scored against Aston Villa, while he also notched a goal in the World Cup. He's a big set-piece threat in his own right, netting three for Brighton last season and averaging 0.11 xG per 90 in the Premier League since the start of last season.
He took three shots against Germany, two from set-pieces, and could again have joy from similar situations against a weak opponent.
Odds correct at 11:00 BST (25/09/26)
Germany vs Greece
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 BST
- TV: Amazon Prime PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
While they may have conceded late, a point away at the Netherlands is far from the worst result as the Jurgen Klopp spell began as Germany's national head coach.
He's been using this extended international break as a reason to look at a range of players. A total of 44 were called up, split into two squads, with the first squad playing their final game when they welcome a Greece side who successfully came from behind in Serbia last time out.
I won't repeat the points made in the Netherlands preview which also features in this column. Germany should have been more clinical going forward and tighter at the back, but in a weird way, they probably should have won the game based on first-half overall performance.
In what will also be seen as bad news for Arsenal fans, Germany did lose Kai Havertz early to injury. That should mean YOUNES EBNOUTALIB should lead the line, making his 6/5 price to SCORE ANYTIME worth consideration.
Beyond the obvious of being a striker in a side priced at 2/5 for victory, Ebnoutalib has enjoyed a really positive start to the Bundesliga season for Eintracht Frankfurt.
It has been coming following an injury-disrupted second-half of the previous campaign following his move from the eventually-promoted Elversberg in the second tier - he had 12 in 17 games before moving up a division.
He's netted five in five across all competitions, which includes a hat-trick against Union Berlin on opening weekend.
Three of his four Bundesliga games have returned at least three shots. All of those were starts, with the one game which fell short seeing him play just 16 minutes of the away win at Mainz.
He also had two shots against the Netherlands after coming on for Havertz with one of those being on target.
I'll again point out the potential for Joshua Kimmich (13/2) as a goalscorer with penalty duty likely in Havertz's absence, but Ebnoutalib should have far more chances from open play.
From one goalscorer to another, this time from the Greece side of things. No I'm not talking about captain and striker Vangelis Pavlidis, or Brighton hot-shot Charalampos Kostoulas, but West Ham defender KONSTANTINOS MAVROPANOS.
Not only has he made an incredible goalscoring start to the season with the Hammers, but this game could be a set-piece mismatch.
Mavropanos, as a defender, has scored four times in seven league games for West Ham, averaging a mind-boggling 0.36 xG per 90, and he registered two attempts in Greece's win in Serbia last time out.
The Greeks do pose a really big threat from dead-balls, and Germany showed a real weakness against the Netherlands in their last game, conceding 1.23 xG from dead-balls with both Dutch centre-backs firing two shots from set-pieces, plus a controversial set-piece goal ruled out.
Odds correct at 11:00 BST (25/09/26)
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