Football betting tips: Nations League
19:45 - Rep of Ireland vs Israel
2pts Republic of Ireland to win at 11/10 (Betfair, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1.5pts Troy Parrott to score anytime at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Troy Parrott to score 2+ goals at 9/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
19:45 - Netherlands vs Serbia
2.5pts Netherlands 20+ total shots at 4/5 (bet365)
1pt Netherlands 24+ total shots at 12/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Netherlands 28+ total shots at 6/1 (bet365)
*More tips could follow...
Republic of Ireland vs Israel
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 BST
- TV: Amazon Prime PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
The meeting between the Republic of Ireland and Israel last Sunday was overshadowed by pre-game talks around the Irish potentially boycotting the game, but it went ahead in Hungary and it was a very one-sided contest.
Ireland were 3-0 up after just 25 minutes and that was pretty much that. The first half saw the Irish take more shots (5-1), rack up more big chances (3-0) and post a far superior xG total (1.43-0.03).
Now back in front of a raucous AVIVA home crowd, fresh off the back of another good display against a very good Austria side albeit one that did see them blow a 2-0 lead, I see no reason why we shouldn't trust Heimir Hallgrímsson's side TO WIN against a lesser opponent, with the price about REPUBLIC OF IRELAND too big in my opinion.
Israel were again second best last time out when drawing 0-0 with Kosovo, and before getting thumped by Ireland, were dismantled on the road in Austria 3-1, losing the xG battle 2.78-0.20.
They have won just two of their last 10 internationals, losing five, while Ireland's home form deserves an immense amount of respect. They are unbeaten in 10 across all competitions, winning six of those and taking a big scalp of Portugal in that time during World Cup qualifying.
The performance against Austria, a team ranked 22nd in the world, was another positive step as Irish football continues it's upward trajectory, and they can complete the double of Israel on Sunday.
If they are to win, the chances are that star man TROY PARROTT will have something to do with it. The Real Betis striker has a remarkable recent scoring record for his nation, scoring nine times in Ireland's last six competitive internationals.
🚨🇮🇪 Troy Parrott (24) for Ireland. 😳
— EuroFoot (@eurofootcom) October 1, 2026
That is INCREDIBLE. 👏 pic.twitter.com/1ggNy0cRJ2
He's 13/8 TO SCORE ANYTIME, which looks massive for a starting striker of a near-even money favourite who also takes penalties. He scored in the win against Israel and netted a BRACE against Austria, and we'll also chance a repeat here at 9/1.
Parrott has bagged three braces or better in his last six competitive internationals and is red-hot right now. Cheered on by a full home crowd against an Israel side who have conceded three times in each of their games against the higher-ranked sides in this Nations League group, Parrott will be licking his lips.
Netherlands vs Serbia
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 BST
- TV: Amazon Prime PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
Serbia are bad. Like, really bad.
They have played three Nations League A games so far and lost all of them, but the manner of the defeats has been concerning and suggests that they are well below the level required to compete against Europe's elite.
The scoreline's may reflect close-ish games, losing 2-1, 2-1 and 2-0, but the underlying metrics paint a very different picture.
In two home games against Greece and the NETHERLANDS they shipped 26 and 25 shots equating to 2.51 and 2.74 xG respectively. In their first away game of the Nations League against Germany, they conceded 32 shots equating to 3.81 xG, mustering just one attempt and 0.01 xG themselves.
We profited big time in that game by laddering the Germany's shot line, which started at 18+. The bookies have cottoned on, with the start of the line now at 20+ TOTAL SHOTS, but that still seems too low for me given this is an away game against a very strong Dutch side.
After all, Serbia have conceded 83 shots in just three matches, so 4/5 for the hosts on Sunday to hit 20+ rates a cracking bet.
Xavi's side fired 22 at home to Germany, who are far superior to Serbia, drilled 25 in Serbia and got to 19 away against a Greece side who had just beaten Germany.
Once again, we will get the ladder out and back NETHERLANDS 24+ TOTAL SHOTS at 12/5 and 28+ TOTAL SHOTS at 6/1.
Serbia have faced 24+ shots in all of their Nations League games so far, while the high line has a chance if the Dutch are as ruthless and trigger-happy as Germany were, with Jurgen Klopp's men hitting 26 shots by the 65 minute mark in Munich.
Odd correct at 15:00 BST (2/10/26)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Home of This Week's Acca
- Football and other sports tips
- Download the Sporting Life app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
