James' 26/27 record: Staked 15.5pts | Returned 23.8pts | P/L +8.3pts | ROI 53%
Football betting tips: La Liga, Ligue 1, Serie A
19:45 – Ligue 1: Marseille vs PSG
1pt PSG-PSG Half time / Full time at 21/20 (William Hill)
1pt Joao Neves 1+ Shots on Target at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
19:45 – Serie A: Milan vs Lecce
1pt Diego Moreira 1+ Shots on Target at 19/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Marseille vs PSG
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 BST
- TV: Amazon Prime PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
We fancy PSG to run out easy winners when they face arch-rivals Marseille in ‘Le Classique’ on Sunday night.
Marseille have lost their last four games in all competitions and the visitors are due their first big Ligue 1 win of the season.
The problem is that the market has wised-up to the scale of PSG’s superiority.
The visitors are 4/9 TO WIN having opened at a much bigger price.
If you think PSG will win big, consider them on the Asian Handicap. PSG -1.5 will pay out at 41/40 if Luis Enrique’s players triumph by two or more goals.
We prefer supporting PSG’s potential dominance on the HALF-TIME / FULL-TIME market. PSG-PSG is available at 21/20 (WIlliam Hill).
At Brest last weekend they took an early lead through in-form Ferran Torres (who is 6/5 with Coral and Ladbrokes to score this weekend) and went on to claim all three points.
A similar scenario would be no surprise against a Marseille side that may be tired from kick-off.
Seven of Marseille's first-choice players were in the starting line-up for their 4-1 defeat at Besiktas in the Europa League on Thursday night. The other four appeared as substitutes.
That hands manager Bruno Genesio the dilemma of either picking a strong but drained team, or weakening the side via rotation.
In the player markets, JOAO NEVES warrants attention. Marseille’s 4-2-3-1 formation offers the back four scant protection, with preferred midfield duo Himad Abdelli and Pierre-Emile Hjobjerg lacking pace.
That means PSG’s midfield runners should get space towards the edge of the Marseille penalty area and Neves can take advantage.
The Portugal international has managed at least 1+ SHOT ON TARGET in two of his three starts this season. He was on target with both of his attempts on goal at Brest last weekend.
In the 1+ Shots on Target market, he can be backed at 5/4.
AC Milan vs Lecce
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 BST
- TV: TNT Sports, DAZN
- Live odds, form and stats
It is hard to know exactly which version of AC Milan will turn up given how inconsistent they have been in recent days.
Last weekend they went 2-0 down at Lazio only to mount a spectacular second-half comeback to secure a 2-2 draw.
But it was one step backwards on Wednesday night as they lost 2-0 at home to Benfica in their opening Europa League game.
This is a winnable fixture for the Rossoneri, however. We expect them to bounce back from their midweek woes by claiming all three points here.
They are W2-D2-L0 in Serie A and, in their only home fixture against a team that, like this weekend’s opponents LECCE, are likely to finish in the bottom-half this season, they ran out comfortable winners (2-0 vs Venezia, Aug 28).
That said, the prices leave little room for backing Milan. They are 2/7 to win which holds little appeal.
They are 31/40 (bet365) with a -1.5 Asian Handicap but right now, we do not have enough faith in them to win by two or more goals.
Instead, turn your attention to the 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET market. There is one man we love here, and that man is DIEGO MOREIRA.
Belgium international Moreira came off the bench to score both goals in the 2-2 draw vs Lazio last weekend with two excellent left-foot finishes.
He appeared for only 35 minutes as a substitute against Benfica in midweek, so we expect him to start this weekend.
A summer signing from Strasbourg, Moreira can play in a number of positions. His most likely role in Ruben Amorim’s 3-4-2-1 formation is as a left-wing-back.
From there, he should have plenty of opportunities to get forward against limited opponents. At 19/20, Moreira to manage 1+ SHOT ON TARGET is our main pick on the match.
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (18/09/26)
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