Football betting tips: Ligue 1 and La Liga
19:45 – Marseille vs Lyon
1pt Corentin Tolisso 1+ Shot on Target at 6/5 (BetMGM) - min price 3/4
20:00 – Girona vs Celta Vigo
1pt Celta Vigo Draw No Bet at 11/10 (Bet365)
Marseille vs Lyon
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: Amazon PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
At first glance, the odds of 14/5 on Lyon winning the somewhat awkwardly nicknamed ‘Olympico’ look too big.
Aren’t Lyon one place (3rd) and 5pts above out-of-form Marseille (no win in their last four league fixtures) in the Ligue 1 standings? Haven’t they just won 13 consecutive games in all competitions before the run ended with their 3-1 defeat at Strasbourg last weekend?
Yes and yes. Dig a little deeper, however, and a different picture emerges.
The reason the visitors are rank outsiders (Marseille are 19/20 to pick up all three points, while the Draw is 11/4) is team news. Lyon’s 10-goal top scorer Pavel Sulc is ruled out by a muscle problem. Lyon’s top assists provider Afonso Moreira – he has set up six Ligue 1 goals – is also out, having suffered an injury of his own.
Without the highly productive duo, Lyon will be much less effective in the final third.
What the pair’s absence does, however, is open up a terrific opportunity to back CORENTIN TOLISSO 1+ SHOT ON TARGET.
Enjoying an excellent season, Tolisso has thrived in the more advanced role manager Paulo Fonseca has handed him. Rather than purely operating as a central midfielder, he often lines-up as a no.10 and, occasionally, a False 9 centre-forward, too.
With Sulc and Moreira missing, Tolisso will be one of Lyon’s primary goal threats. The 31-year-old ex-Bayern Munich star’s shooting stats bear how dangerous he is.
He has managed at least one shot on target in a remarkably high 15 of his 19 Ligue 1 starts this season. And he is efficient, too: his total of 18 shots on target have come from 37 attempts (49% success rate).
Given Tolisso’s form, the 6/5 on him managing a shot on target at Stade Velodrome is too good to overlook.
Girona vs Celta Vigo
- Kick-off: Sunday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Premier Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
The smart bet is to support CELTA VIGO in some way on Sunday night.
The visitors have been consistently difficult to beat, and excellent away from home. They head into this game on a run of just two defeats in 90 minutes across their last 15 fixtures in all competitions (W8-D5-L2).
While Celta Vigo have faltered occasionally, their 10-game form is the division’s third-best (W5-D3-L2). Their away record (W5-D5-L2) is the division’s third-best, too, with their figures underlining just how difficult they are to beat on the road.
Girona are no pushovers. Their 10-game form is identical to Celta Vigo’s (W5-D3-L2). And, while they may be seven places below Celtain the Liga standings, the gap is not as big as you may think: the currently 'squeezed middle' in the Spanish top flight means just eight points separate the sides.
Where Girona come unstuck is their home form. They are a mediocre W4-D4-L4 at Estadi Montilivi. And, while they pulled off a remarkable 2-1 home win over league leaders Barcelona on February 16, their other three home wins were against sides that are all currently below Celta Vigo in the table (Alaves, Osasuna, Valencia) .
Girona are 6/4, while Celta Vigo are 19/10, and The Draw 23/10. The visitors’ underdog status presents the opportunity to support them on the DRAW NO BET market.
Odds correct at 16:00 GMT (27/02/26)
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