James' 26/27 record: Staked 30pts | Returned 33.45pts | P/L +3.45pts | ROI 11.5%
19:45 – Ligue 1: Lens vs Marseille
1pt Under 3.5 Goals at 4/6 (General)
19:45 – Serie A: Fiorentina vs Juventus
1pt Both Teams to Score at 4/6 (General)
20:00 – La Liga: Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
1pt Over 3.5 Goals at 4/5 (General)
Lens vs Marseille
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: Amazon Prime PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
How does a team react to a 9-1 home defeat in the Champions League? We don’t know - because it has never happened before.
Lens’ loss to Como was the most extraordinary result in yet another week of high-scoring Champions League drama. The Sang et Or (Blood and Golds) were 3-0 down at half-time, and then collapsed in the most humiliating manner after the break.
Under-pressure manager Yannick Cahuzac will make changes to the team as he and the players look to rebuild before international action takes centre stage next week. A better defensive display will obviously be Lens' priority, so we can expect a more cautious approach than we normally see from them at home.
Marseille have won their last four Ligue 1 matches. They upset the odds to win 1-0 at Bayer Leverkusen (Europa League) on Thursday night. Fatigue is the concern for the visitors: eight of the players that started in their 2-0 (home) win vs Toulouse last weekend also started in Germany in midweek. Manager Bruno Genesio may rotate, which would weaken the side.
With caution Lens' watchword, and Marseille potentially lacking the energy to attack as freely as they would like, UNDER 3.5 GOALS is our play. The trends are strong, too: this has paid out in three of Lens’ four home games and three of Marseille’s four away games.
Fiorentina vs Juventus
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports and DAZN
- Live odds, form and stats
There is one particularly strong goals trend that we like on Fiorentina matches as they prepare to host Juventus on Sunday night.
This will be La Viola’s 11th Serie A game of the season, and BOTH TEAMS HAVE SCORED in eight of the previous 10. This includes three games against sides of comparable quality to Juventus: Napoli (1-1, home), Como (1-3, home), and Inter (1-2, away).
The goals count in Fiorentina's matches has increased recently: they won 4-2 at Sassuolo last weekend, pushing their average goals-per-game tally since the last international break up to 4.0.
Juventus’ Serie A games have been lower-scoring (average 2.3 goals per game), and it is worth noting that both teams have scored in only three of their 10. Both teams have found the net in all three of Juve’s Europa League group games, however, the latest example being their 2-1 win at AZ Alkmaar on Thursday night.
As 61% of all 2026-27 Serie A games have had three or more goals, over 2.5 goals will attract attention, but we'll back BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE in order to keep the 1-1 scoreline onside.
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
- Kick-off: Sunday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Premier Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
The top two face-off in Spain in what promises to be an absorbing encounter to round off the weekend action in La Liga.
Atletico Madrid are now just 2pts behind league Barcelona thanks to a run of seven straight wins. Meanwhile, the visitors have bounced back from their 2-1 defeat to Real Madrid a fortnight ago by claiming consecutive home victories over Alaves (6-1) and Aston Villa (3-0) in their last two outings.
There are reasons to believe Barcelona will secure a third straight victory here. The main one is that Atletico Madrid have struggled against better opposition this season: they lost 2-0 at home to Bayern Munich in the Champions League this week, could only draw 1-1 (away) against Stuttgart last month, and lost 2-1 at Liverpool in September.
On the one occasion Atletico Madrid did beat top opposition this season, while playing well, a red card for their opponents was a factor in their 2-1 win over Real Madrid (Sep 20).
Barcelona have the edge, but current prices on the Blaugrana are unappealing. Hansi Flick’s visitors are a best-priced 5/6 to win, and I'd want at least evens.
Instead, look at the OVER 3.5 GOALS market. Atletico Madrid are an instinctively aggressive attacking side at home, and will correctly regard a Barcelona team lacking injured midfielder Rodri as more vulnerable than usual. Barcelona are second only to PSG as an attacking force in Europe, and will play to those strengths.
In total, 50% of Atletico's and Barcelona's combined La Liga matches have featured four or more goals. Zoom in purely on Atleti’ home games and Barca’s away games, and that figure rises to 70%.
Those numbers are enough to persuade me to take the 4/5 available on this potential humdinger featuring four or more goals.
All odds correct at 16:00 GMT (06/11/26)
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