Football betting tips: EFL play-offs
3pts Stevenage to have over 9.5 shots at 10/11 (bet365)
Salford's 2-1 win at Grimsby aside, goals were scarce in the opening legs of this year's play-off semi-finals.
There were the same number scored across the remaining five ties - two goalless draws in the Championship and three matches ending 1-0.
Most were cagey affairs, with the opening leg of this League One bout no different. With a combined expected goals (xG) of 0.80 and three shots on target, the match was meandering to an underwhelming 0-0 until the Stevenage backline got themselves into an uncharacteristic muddle, allowing Ben Osborn to capitalise and poke into an unguarded net with the last kick of the game.
Now it is advantage Stockport and that is reflected in the odds with Dave Challinor’s side generally 1/8 to reach Wembley.
Stockport County take the lead in stoppage time in the most extraordinary fashion🤯 pic.twitter.com/iJhkIfE59X
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) May 9, 2026
Of the six play-off fixtures, the clash at Broadhall Way did look the most likely to underwhelm.
In the regular season, 17 of Boro’s 23 home fixtures had gone under 2.5 goals, 12 were decided by a goal or fewer and Alex Revell’s side kept 13 clean sheets.
Home form was the cornerstone of Stevenage’s fine campaign with 14 of their 22 wins coming on their own patch.
On the road, they actually lost more games than they won (W7 D5 L11) and the majority of those victories came against sides who finished in the bottom half. Away at top-half teams, Stevenage lost eight of 11 games.
It doesn’t bode well for the trip to Edgeley Park, especially considering the hosts' form on their own patch.
Stockport have only lost twice in 12 home league games since Boxing Day (Mansfield and Port Vale). That said, the odds-on price about the Hatters is a touch short considering a draw will see them progress.
Given the unique set of circumstances of an EFL play-off second leg, the visitors will have to throw caution to the wind and go for this at some point and I think this brings their shots lines into play.
STEVENAGE are 10/11 TO HAVE OVER 9.5 SHOTS with bet365 which seems low to me.
On the road in the regular season Boro averaged 9.3 per game. That was the fifth lowest average in the division but as we’ve already established, this isn’t the regular season.
Besides, Boro hit this line in 56% of their matches.
Interestingly, they conceded the first goal in 12 of their away trips in the regular season and went on to hit this line on nine occasions.
The only three times they didn’t have at least 10 shots when they conceded first on the road was against champions Lincoln, Exeter and Blackpool but in the latter they were 3-1 up at half time.
It is also worth noting, 65% of Stockport’s opponents hit this line at Edgeley Park this term.
Odds correct at 15:15 BST (12/05/26)
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