Spanish La Liga betting tips: Outright preview and best bets for 2021/22 season
Liam Kelly has two outright bets for the 2021/22 La Liga campaign, forecasting Lionel Messi to drive Barcelona to glory.
Football betting tips: La Liga outright
5pts Barcelona to win La Liga at 6/4 (General)
2pts Real Sociedad to finish in the top four at 3/1 (William Hill, Betfred)
*Written before Barcelona announced Lionel Messi departure*
Atlético Madrid disturbed the status quo once again last season, winning the La Liga title by two points from city rivals Real, relying on their defensive solidity to secure an unlikely victory.
Diego Simeone's side did overperform their expected goals (xG) numbers in doing so, scoring 67 times from 59.5 xG and conceding only 25 goals from 42.1 xG, highlighting the importance of bringing in Luis Suárez and the benefits of possessing one of the best goalkeepers in the world in Jan Oblak.
Who will win La Liga?
Although they exceeded underlying numbers, it's surprising to see Atléti priced much higher than Real Madrid and Barcelona in the La Liga winner markets considering how the 2020/21 season played out.
Atléti have improved their squad further, too, adding Rodrigo de Paul to their midfield mix, while Real appear to have taken a backwards step after surprise outgoings.
The extremely successful centre-back partnership of Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane is no longer as both left the club this summer, significantly weakening a unit that wasn't especially impressive last season, allowing an average 1.16 expected goals against (xGA) per game — only the sixth-best rate in the league.
In fact, Carlo Ancelotti takes over a team that relied heavily on Karim Benzema for attacking output under Zinedine Zidane, making it easy to discount them in the title race, despite Los Blancos holding favourtism in places.
21/22 La Liga winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 11/8 - Real Madrid
- 6/4 - Barcelona
- 10/3 - Atlético Madrid
- 18/1 - Sevilla
- 50/1 - Real Sociedad, Villarreal
Odds correct as of 1300 BST (03/08/21)
That often means value is available elsewhere, which, in this case, comes in the form of Catalan giants BARCELONA.
Barca will have been desperately disappointed with a third place finish last season, ending the campaign five points away from the top spot. However, underlying data suggests they were the best team in La Liga across the 38 matches.
Ronald Koeman's side averaged 2.21 expected goals for (xGF) per game, the highest in the league, while remaining a solid defensive team through a number of injuries (1.15 xGA per game).
Additionally, Barcelona have strengthened in the transfer window, bringing in Memphis Depay, Sergio Agüero, Eric Garcia and Emerson. They now possess the best squad in La Liga.
Most importantly, Lionel Messi looks set to extend his contract with the club. It's impossible to understate the significance of a potential extension, holding onto the best player in the world would sweeten everyone's summer.
Messi, now a Copa America winner, scored 30 goals from 25.65 expected goals (xG) last season, adding nine assists from a total of 11.81 expected assists (xA) to his impressive contribution.
With the added support, Messi can lead Barcelona to their first La Liga title since 2018/19.
Real Sociedad primed to break into top four
Real Sociedad enjoyed a tremendous 2020/21 season, winning a delayed Copa del Rey final against bitter rivals Athletic Bilbao and finishing fifth place in La Liga.
Despite ending the campaign 15 points behind fourth-placed Sevilla, Imanol Alguacil's side posted outstanding underlying data, averaging 1.82 xGF and 1.14 xGA per game — both of which were better numbers than Real Madrid.
La Real look poised to keep their excellent squad together, including the incredibly talented Alexander Isak and Mikel Oyarzabal, and the return of some fans to the Anoeta is a big advantage for the Basque club heading into the new season.
REAL SOCIEDAD can upset the apple cart and FINISH IN THE TOP FOUR with a repeated effort.
Sevilla and Europa League champions Villarreal will prove to be Real Sociedad's closest pursuers for a place in the top four, but, at the prices, La Real look the better option.
Julen Lopetegui's Sevilla squad is sure being picked apart again, which may finally catch up with the incredibly well-run club, while Villarreal appear to be a little inconsistent on the domestic front to break into a Champions League qualification place.
La Liga 2021-22: Outright best bets
- 5pts Barcelona to win La Liga at 6/4 (General)
- 2pts Real Sociedad to finish in the top four at 3/1 (William Hill, Betfred)
Odds correct at 1300 BST (03/08/21)
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