Spain host Scotland in Seville, looking to avenge their Euro 2024 qualifying Group A defeat in the reverse fixture. Liam Kelly has a best bet.
Football betting tips: Euro 2024 qualifying
1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 23/20 (General)
Not many would have predicted the current state of Group A at this point before the Euro 2024 qualifying campaign started.
Scotland head to Spain with a 100% record from five games in the group, set for an automatic spot in next year's tournament thanks to the spectacular start.
Indeed, they've already beaten Spain in the reverse fixture, a 2-0 win at Hampden Park that will live long in the memory.
Luis de la Fuente's side have rebounded well from that early setback, however, looking likely to edge out Norway for the other qualification place having hammered Georgia 7-1 and Cyprus 6-0 during the last international break.
It could be argued that those kind of scorelines are to be expected of a team of Spain's calibre, but they were impressive performances nonetheless. Scotland will be a tougher test in Seville, though.
What are the best bets?
Scotland's sturdy defence will be Spain's stiffest test you would imagine.
Steve Clarke's side have conceded just one goal in their five qualification matches thus far and zero from open-play.
It is understandable that Spain's recent results might have swayed the odds in favour of a relatively high-scoring game, but the 23/20 available for UNDER 2.5 GOALS looks like value to me.
Spain are missing some key pieces from an attacking standpoint, so it's easy to envisage the slow, patient play we've come to expect from the hosts to find it difficult against a well-drilled Scotland unit.
At odds-against, two or fewer goals is worth a play.
BuildABet @ 14/1
- 8+ Spain corners
- 16+ Spain total shots
- John McGinn to be carded
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Spain should dominate the majority of play and have an opportunity to rack up both both corners and shots as a result.
John McGinn might be chasing shadows against the Spain midfield but it won't stop him chasing. He can be added to the BuildABet to be carded.
Team news
Pedri, Marco Asensio and Dani Olmo have been ruled out for Spain, as has Barcelona's teenage star Lamine Yamal through injury.
Ryan Jack had to pull out of Scotland's squad after picking up an injury recently. Steve Clarke will also be without key player Kieran Tierney for the trip to Spain.
Predicted line-ups
Spain: Unai Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Balde; Rodri, Merino, Gavi; Torres, Williams, Morata.
Scotland: Gunn; Hickey, McKenna, Hendry, Porteous, Robertson; Gilmour, McGregor, McTominay, McGinn; Adams.
Match facts
- Spain have only lost one of their eight home matches against Scotland in all competitions (W4 D3), losing 6-2 against them in a friendly in June 1963. This is their first meeting with Scotland on home soil since October 2011, a 3-1 win in a European Championship qualifier.
- Following their 2-0 win over Spain in March, Scotland are looking to record consecutive victories against them for the first time.
- In qualifying for major tournaments (World Cup/Euros), Spain have only lost home and away against a side in the group stages once before, losing twice to France in Euro 1992 qualifying.
- Scotland have won 15 of their last 18 competitive international matches (D1 L2), including their last five in a row, all in Euro 2024 qualifiers. Since September 2021, only Portugal (17), the Netherlands (16) and France (16) have won more competitive matches among European nations.
- Spain have won their last 24 home European Championship qualifiers, a run that stretches back to September 2003 and is the longest ever home winning run in Euro qualifying history. The last side to beat them on home soil were Greece in June 2003, who would later win the following European Championship tournament in 2004.
- Scotland have won their last 11 group stage matches in qualifying for major tournaments, the longest ongoing run of any European nation. They haven’t won six group stage matches in a European Championship qualifying campaign since their Euro 2008 qualifying group (8).
- Excluding own goals, only Portugal (11) have had more different scorers in qualifying for Euro 2024 than Spain (9), with Álvaro Morata and Joselu joint top scorers for the Spaniards with three goals each.
- Only Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku (8) has more goals in Euro 2024 qualifying than Scotland’s Scott McTominay (6). The only Scottish players to ever score more times in a qualifying campaign for a major tournament are Steven Fletcher (seven in Euro 2016 qualifying) and John McGinn (seven in Euro 2020 qualifying).
Odds correct 1430 BST (10/10/23)
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