The second Nations League semi-final sees Spain take on Italy, and Tom Carnduff is backing a goalscorer at a big price.
Football betting tips: Nations League
1pt Lorenzo Pellegrini to score anytime at 13/2 (bet365)
Two countries who know the importance of securing silverware in the Netherlands, Spain meet Italy with both in eras of significant change.
Roberto Mancini's Azzurri outfit missed out on the World Cup and began Euro 2024 qualification with defeat to England. A period of transition does still deliver an appearance in the final four of the Nations League.
The odds are favouring Spain, but with little between the two sides, it could well be a contest that goes beyond the initial 90 minutes.
Rather than gamble on the outcome, my eye was caught by the 13/2 available on LORENZO PELLEGRINI TO SCORE ANYTIME.
He's a regular in the Roma midfield that reached the Europa League final, but it's likely we'll see him lining up out wide in the forward three for this game.
His attacking ability is outlined in his club statistics this season. Pellegrini averaged 2.0 shots per Serie A game, with four goals and five assists on his tally.
That shots figure jumped up to 2.5 for four goals as he started 14 of their 15 European contests. His only absence being the group stage defeat to Real Betis.
The underlying numbers support what a positive club season it's been for Pellegrini. In 46 Serie A and Europa League appearances, he registered 100 shots and 13.9 xG despite only scoring eight.
The most recent Nations League campaign delivered two goals across his three appearances - those coming in separate games - while he got an assist in that defeat to England in March.
Pellegrini also found the net when Italy lost to Spain in the semi-final meeting in the previous edition of this tournament.
With a close contest expected, PELLEGRINI is the value bet to strike in 90 minutes at the prices available.
Spain v Italy best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Lorenzo Pellegrini to score anytime at 13/2 (bet365)
Score prediction: Spain 1-1 Italy (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1315 BST (14/06/23)
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