Goal-mad West Ham visit Southampton in the Premier League on Saturday and Michael Beardmore fancies the entertainment - and goals - to keep coming.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts West Ham or Draw Double Chance and Over 2.5 Goals at 17/10 (Betway)
1pt Michail Antonio to assist a goal at 7/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Pablo Fornals to score anytime at 9/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
West Ham have been a joy to behold the last few months, their past 13 Premier League games featuring a whopping 50 goals – that’s an average of almost four per match.
Saturday’s hosts Southampton have been no slouches on that front this term either, their top-flight matches averaging just over three goals per game and they thrashed Newport 8-0 in the League Cup.
Those numbers indicate we are practically guaranteed goals at St Mary’s – a belief backed up by the bookies' skinny prices of 8/15 on both teams to score and 4/6 or 8/11 on over 2.5 goals in the match.
I have no issue with favourite-backers going big on either of those fronts but there are some cuter plays to be found if we dig a little deeper.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Southampton 9/5 | Draw 5/2 | West Ham 11/8
Since the turn of the year, West Ham’s record against ‘non Champions League’ sides (i.e excluding Chelsea, Liverpool and the two Manchester clubs) has been remarkable – it reads P21 W15 D4 L2.
In 14 of those 19 wins or draws, there have been over 2.5 goals, all of which combined makes the 17/10 available with Betway about DOUBLE CHANCE WEST HAM OR DRAW & OVER 2.5 GOALS look massive.
It’s a bet that would have landed in six of the Hammers’ past eight games – and given they have shown no sign of abandoning their gung-ho ways, it’s a solid play at St Mary’s against a game but limited Saints side capable of a draw but less likely to win.
Infogol's model shows Hammers' matches are averaging 3.86 Expected Goals (xG) per game - (2.40 Expected Goals for and 1.46 Expected Goals Against) - a tally exceeded by only Newcastle (1.30 xGF and 2.63 xGA making 3.93 xG per game overall).
There’s added value in the goal markets too. West Ham were Premier League set-piece kings last season, their 16 goals from such situations unmatched, although the Saints were actually second with 15.
We profited on several occasions via that route with the likes of Craig Dawson, Angelo Ogbonna and Tomas Soucek and all are worth a look as first or anytime scorers
However, nine of the Hammers’ 10 goals thus far this term have come from open play and there are two prices I was surprised to find on players among their more prolific goal sources.
Michail Antonio has enjoyed a storming start to the season with four goals in three games, becoming West Ham’s all-time leading Premier League scorer, and he’s short in the scoring markets as a result.
However, you can get a giant 7/1 on ANTONIO TO ASSIST A GOAL with Paddy Power and Betfair – which looks ludicrous given he has registered an assist in all three appearances so far this term.
A final price I can’t ignore is the 9/2 with the same bookmakers for PABLO FORNALS TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The attacking midfielder has netted twice in three games for the Hammers already this season and yet the bookies have 10 or more other players down as likelier to score than him here.
That’s just silly on a man who will be buzzing after his first goal for Spain in midweek, having earned an international recall for the first time since 2018.
Southampton v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts West Ham or Draw Double Chance and Over 2.5 Goals at 17/10 (Betway)
- 1pt Michail Antonio to assist a goal at 7/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
- 1pt Pablo Fornals to score anytime at 9/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Score prediction: Southampton 1-3 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Odds correct 1430 BST (09/09/21)
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