2017/18 football betting tips: Sky Bet League Two outright preview
After tasty Sky Bet League Two profits last season, our Nick Hext is backing two in the 2017/18 handicap market at 18/1 - and also has a 33/1 top scorer tip.
Recommended bets: Sky Bet League Two
1pt e.w. Forest Green (+16) to win on the handicap at 18/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4) - see above
1pt e.w. Crewe (+20) to win on the handicap at 18/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4) - see above
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Followers of my League Two tips were smiling last season as Exeter finished fifth for a payout on the 7/2 ante-post price for a top-seven finish.
The Grecians also finished second in the handicap table, just one point behind Devon rivals Plymouth, and that added further profits.
I'm going for a similar approach this season with two outsiders backed to finish in the top seven. The duo also provide an interest in the handicap market.
I agree with the verdict of the bookies across the board that Mansfield and Luton are the two leading title contenders but I can also leave both alone at the prices.
An even wider berth is required on third-favourites Coventry who, like Blackburn in League One, just can't be trusted to get through a season with competent management off the field.
Sky Bet's League Two title odds!
EFL newcomers Forest Green are my first fancy to make a real push for promotion in their debut League Two campaign.
The team from the village of Nailsworth in Gloucestershire with a ground at the top of a blooming big hill and sheep looking on from the surrounding fields shouldn't be written off as a novelty act.
Chairman Dale Vince has invested heavily in the New Lawn outfit and it was no surprise last season that they finally departed the Vanarama National League after three consecutive play-off finishes.
Tranmere were beaten with ease in the play-off final at Wembley and boss Mark Cooper is a manager with plenty of EFL experience in charge of Peterborough, Swindon and Notts County.
He's been busy adding to his squad over the off-season, although the biggest boost is getting captain Liam Noble to sign a new contract. That deal was penned after an entertaining transfer saga with Notts County that saw both clubs making official statements on the matter.
Luke James is a really interesting addition to the frontline. That's providing he can rediscover the form that persuaded Peterborough to sign the striker from Hartlepool for a fee of around £500,000 just three years ago.
James, still just 22, will benefit from being a more central figure at Rovers than during his time with Posh.
Of course, it isn't a given that clubs from non-league step up to the EFL with ease. However, Bristol Rovers did manage to secure back-to-back promotions in the 2015/16 campaign after winning the National League play-off final one year previously.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Forest Green ended up in the mix for a spot in League One and odds of 10/3 for a top-seven finish are much more appealing than Lincoln at even money in that market.
The Imps, last season's National League title winners, are set to go well but the odds are too prohibitive to show an interest.
Rovers have experience of battling for promotion in each of the last three seasons and a young squad capable of further improvement. They are well worth an interest to end up in the play-offs at least and a 16-point deficit in the handicap to favourites Mansfield on the handicap also appeals.
Sky Bet's odds for the League Two handicap market!
I also have an inkling that Crewe are set for a campaign of vast improvement.
The Alex finished 17th last season after never threatening a promotion challenge following relegation from League One the previous season.
Boss Steve Davis paid for the struggles with his job and his replacement David Artell has impressed me so far in his first managerial role.
The 36-year-old, born in Rotherham but a full international for Gibraltar at the end of his playing career, has degrees in analytical science and forensic biology as well as a PGCE in biomedical science.
That is incredibly commendable, although his transformation of Crewe from a meek side lacking anything about them to a team that contained a constant threat in front of goal impressed me more.
Jordan Bowery and Chris Dagnall's partnership in attack was key to the turnaround and both men remain at the club. That's great news and the signing of former Sheffield United forward Chris Porter provides another serious goalscoring option.
Michael Raynes and Eddie Nolan provide fresh nous in the centre of defence and that can only boost a squad that lacked a bit of experience over the course of the last 12 months.
Four of the last eight clubs have reached the League Two play-offs after finishing in the bottom half at the end of the previous season. Crewe are the latest team who can make that leap and at 9/2 should be backed for a top-seven finish.
The Alex, like Exeter last term, have a 20-point advantage in the handicap odds so that's worth taking as well.
Regular followers of my tips will know that I like to back a striker for top scorer in League Two as they step up from the National League.
Sky Bet League Two top goalscorer prices!
Barnet's John Akinde secured an each-way success at the end of the 2015/16 season and Omar Bogle was leading the way in the goalscoring standings before he swapped Grimsby for Wigan in January.
I know plenty of you were left disappointed by Bogle's step up the EFL pyramid but unfortunately, that is always a risk with any up-and-coming striker in League Two.
My pick for this term plays for newly-promoted Lincoln but he's a new arrival to the Imps with plenty of League Two experience.
Matt Green has spent the last two seasons with Mansfield and he's netted 29 goals across his previous couple of years with the Stags.
It was a surprise that Steve Evans let the former Birmingham striker leave at the end of his contract but that's the nature of the business when a squad is being completely reshaped.
Lincoln added Green to their ranks earlier this summer and, at 33/1, should offer a good run for your money.
The 30-year-old looks certain of a starting place at Sincil Bank. The disappointment of being released and new environment should act as a real spur in the months ahead.
It slightly deviates from my normal approach of backing a newcomer but I reckon Green's case is convincing enough.
Posted at 0820 BST on 01/08/17.
Coming next: Sky Bet EFL team-by-team guide, Tuesday 1200 BST
Related links
Latest Sky Bet League Two odds
2017/18 football betting previews - what's coming when
2017/18 Sky Bet League Two fixtures in full
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