Burton v Cheltenham tips: Sky Bet League One best bets and preview
Michael Beardmore bids to continue a profitable start to the EFL season with his best bets as Burton host Cheltenham in Sky Bet League One's televised Friday night game.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet League One
1pt Draw HT/ Burton FT at 5/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Ryan Leak to score anytime at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Fair play to the Sky Sports schedulers for giving a spotlight to a couple of League One’s smaller clubs on Friday evening, given they have the likes of Sheffield Wednesday, Sunderland and Ipswich to pick from.
Burton and Cheltenham are two clubs loving the 21st century more than most – both are enjoying the most successful periods in their history after spending the majority of their existence in non-league.
The Brewers reached the heady heights of the Championship before plateauing back down in League One while League Two champions Cheltenham are embarking on only their fourth campaign at third-tier level.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Burton 5/4 | Draw 9/4 | Cheltenham 2/1
Of the two, Burton have started this season the better with three wins from four and I’m kicking myself I did not back them in my outright preview after the job Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink has done at the Pirelli Stadium.
He set the platform for their promotion to the second tier in his first spell six years ago before returning in January to haul them off the foot of League One and guide them to safety, comfortably too, given the mess he inherited.
The former Chelsea and Netherlands striker has a hugely impressive win ratio of 58% from 84 games over those spells – and I fancy his side to boost that figure further on Friday.
Burton have already beaten both Ipswich and Sunderland – and don’t be deceived by the 3-0 defeat at Cambridge last time out. The Brewers were the better side, with nine shots on target to the hosts’ two – they were beaten by two own goals and won the Expected Goals (xG) battle 2.06 - 1.28.
While Michael Duff's Cheltenham have adapted to their new level fairly well – one win, one draw, two defeats, plus two Carabao Cup wins – I just fancy Burton to have the edge, particularly with home advantage.
They are a fairly attractive 5/4 to triumph and I wouldn't put anyone off that - nor the 2/1 on a Brewers win and Under 3.5 Goals - but if we dig deeper, we can find extra value because a pattern emerges of Burton being a team that grind opponents down.
In 11 of 30 games since Hasselbaink returned, they have won after being level at half-time.
This equates to 36% of games where Draw HT/Burton FT has landed, making the 5/1 on offer for DRAW HALF-TIME/BURTON FULL-TIME look huge.
Both teams really spread the goals around – Cheltenham won the League Two title last season without a single player reaching double figures, while Burton’s 15-goal marksman Kane Hemmings (currently injured) had a lengthy supporting cast.
The scoring markets are a needle in a haystack job as a result but it’s definitely worth a play on a Burton set-piece goal – they topped the League One charts for goals from such situations last term, while Cheltenham have conceded four set-play goals in four games since promotion.
I’m siding with centre-half Ryan Leak, a man Burton plucked from obscurity this summer and threw straight into the first team – he’s definitely swum, not sunk.
Leak hit the bar and saw a follow-up superbly saved late on in the defeat at Cambridge and has had six shots overall in his first four professional games. He's clearly enjoying his fairytale rise, contributing to two shut-outs at the back too.
Facing a side struggling against set-pieces, Paddy Power and Betfair go 16/1 on RYAN LEAK TO SCORE ANYTIME, which is certainly worth a little punt. He’s 35s to net first but 16s anytime is big enough and keeps us interested throughout.
Burton v Cheltenham best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Draw HT/ Burton FT at 5/1 (Bet Victor, RedZone)
- 0.5pt Ryan Leak to score anytime at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Score prediction: Burton 1-0 Cheltenham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1530 BST (26/08/21)
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