The Sky Bet EFL continues this weekend following some midweek action. Tom Carnduff is finding value in backing goalscorers.
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Luton v Hull
Goals, goals, goals is the biggest trait of this Luton side - although they aren't all necessarily going in their favour.
The Hatters have scored 12 and conceded 13 goals in just seven games so far. They are averaging 3.5 goals per game and that trend should continue against a Hull side who are also in double figures for goals against.
Two of Hull's last three have seen four goals scored, while they are in the top-seven in this category when you compare them to the rest of the Sky Bet Championship.
For Luton, they top the over 3.5 charts with three of their seven games seeing them hit the category.
Their home games have seen a total of 12 goals scored, with both teams also netting in each of Hull's three contests on the road.
The stats back up that this is a game where the net will be hit on multiple occasions. Over 3.5 goals is available at 13/8, which is value definitely worth taking here.
Best bet: Over 3.5 goals at 13/8
- Luton and Hull haven’t faced in any competition since March 2007 in the Championship – the Tigers won 2-1 at Kenilworth Road.
- Hull have won four of their last five away matches against Luton in all competitions (W4 D0 L1).
- Luton Town have scored more goals via corners than any other Championship this season (4).
- Only Stoke City (8) have lost more points from winning positions in the Championship this season than Hull City (7).
- Only Stoke City (15) have conceded more open play Championship goals than Luton Town this season (11).
- Since the start of the 2017-18 season, Jarrod Bowen has scored 40 Championship goals for Hull City – twice as many as any other Tigers player.
Doncaster v Peterborough
Arguably the highlight of the Sky Bet League One weekend sees Doncaster welcoming Peterborough.
Rovers lost their first game of the season as they were beaten at home by Blackpool in midweek, while Peterborough continue to go from strength-to-strength as they stretched their unbeaten run to six games.
Posh are scoring and goals are aplenty. They've netted 20 goals in eight league matches, no team has managed better.
While Doncaster are enjoying a strong campaign, the value is there in backing the visitors to find the net and the 16/5 price of Marcus Maddison scoring anytime is an attractive price.
The attacking midfielder continues to shine in England's third tier and has hit the ground running this season.
Maddison has featured in eight games so far, scoring five goals and assisting a further six. All of the goals were scored in three of their last four outings.
He's a player with clear ability and he continues to be linked with a move to the Championship. Despite his position in midfield, he has every chance of finishing among the top goalscorers.
While Ivan Toney may have eight goals on his tally, and a price of 2/1 is out there for a goal in 90 minutes, the track record shows that the reasoning is there in squeezing that extra bit of value by going for Maddison instead.
Best bet: Marcus Maddison to score anytime at 16/5
- Doncaster have only kept one clean sheet in their last 17 home league encounters with Peterborough (W6 D4 L7), with the Posh scoring 31 goals in total (1.8 goals per game).
- Since a six-game losing streak against Doncaster in the league between February 1998 and October 2011, Peterborough have only lost one of their following nine such meetings (W3 D5).
- Doncaster, who lost for the first time at home in the league this season last time out against Blackpool (0-1) last lost back-to-back home league games back in April 2018.
- Peterborough are unbeaten in seven matches across all competitions (W5 D2), their longest such run since an 11-game streak ending in December 2018.
- League One top scorers Peterborough United (20 goals) have scored with 20% of their shots in the competition this season (20/100), the best conversion rate in the division.
Bradford v Carlisle
A clash between two sides who would have hoped that they would be a little further up the table after nine games.
Bradford are kept outside of the play-offs by a single point while Carlisle found themselves down in 17th, although results have improved in recent weeks.
There could be value in backing an away win, despite the standings, with Carlisle winning their last two on the road.
The odds are favouring Bradford with victory for them available at odds-on prices, although Carlisle shouldn't be underestimated at 7/2.
A better option than backing the outcome is looking at the goalscorer market and Carlisle winger Nathan Thomas provides interest at a best price of 15/4.
He netted his first goal of the season in their away win at Stevenage last time out, but the stats show how he should have already had numbers of his tally.
The 24-year-old sits third for shots on target among players in Sky Bet League Two with a total of 13. It's made even more impressive by the fact that 59% of his shots this season have been on target.
Given those numbers, 15/4 looks overpriced for a goal, particularly against a team who conceded three goals last time out.
Best bet: Nathan Thomas to score anytime at 15/4
- Bradford and Carlisle will meet in the EFL for the first time since 2013-14 in League One – the Bantams have lost just two of their last twenty games against Carlisle in the Football League (W10 D8), however those two defeats have come in the last three games (W1).
- Carlisle are winless in their last 13 trips to Bradford in the Football League (D5 L8), since a 2-1 win back in October 1951.
- Bradford have lost just one of their last six league games at Valley Parade (W2 D3), a 0-1 defeat against Forest Green in August.
- Carlisle have won back to back away league games for the first time since January, last winning three on the bounce in October 2018.
- Bradford’s Jamie Devitt has provided three assists in his last two EFL appearances against Carlisle, all coming for Morecambe in 2015-16.
Odds correct at 1330 BST (19/09/19)
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