Sky Bet EFL betting tips: Weekend preview

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2pts Northampton to beat Gillingham at 11/5 – Cobblers are a big price to end the season with three points

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Northampton to beat Gillingham, League One

The Sky Bet League One season concludes on Sunday with all matches starting at 1200 BST. Gillingham’s wait to secure survival has been extended thanks to Port Vale, who sit in the final relegation place, winning 1-0 at Walsall in midweek. The Gills now need victory at Northampton to confirm their place in the third tier for another campaign as Vale are just one point behind in the standings, although the Valiants end with a tough trip to Fleetwood. I think Northampton are too big at over 2/1 to get three points at Sixfields. The Cobblers are on a seven-match winless run but they are a better side than Gillingham, who have bigger troubles with six defeats in their previous eight matches. I think Port Vale will lose at Fleetwood so Gillingham will stay up but they can expect a nervous afternoon.  

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Over 2.5 goals in Cardiff v Newcastle, Championship 

Newcastle’s return to the Premier League has been confirmed but their title bid continues with a trip to Cardiff on Friday evening, live on Sky Sports 1. Rafael Benitez’s men won 4-1 at home to Preston on Monday night to confirm their promotion and I expect more goals in this contest in Wales. Three of Newcastle’s last four games have contained three or more goals and that leads me to take a look at over 2.5 goals when the Bluebirds host the Magpies. Cardiff have been keeping things tight in recent weeks but this is a much tougher test against Newcastle’s array of attacking talent. 

Reading to beat Wigan, Championship 

I’m again backing Reading to pick up a home win. The Royals can be backed at close to even-money to get the better of relegation-threatened Wigan and that’s well worth doing. The Royals have won seven and drawn two of their last nine matches at the Madejski Stadium and that makes victory very likely against a Wigan side on the verge of dropping back down to Sky Bet League One. Reading will prove tough opposition for any side in the play-offs, especially if they can make sure of home advantage in the second leg of their semi-final tie. 

Brighton to beat Bristol City by three or more goals, Championship 

Brighton can make sure of the Sky Bet Championship title when they host Bristol City at 1730 BST on Saturday, live on Sky Sports 1. That’s providing Newcastle don’t lost at Cardiff on Friday night as defeat for the Magpies would already have confirmed top spot for the Seagulls. I think Brighton can end the season at the Amex Stadium in style and a simple victory is on the cards for the hosts. The Seagulls have beaten Burton, Reading and Derby by three goals for convincing wins in three of their last eight home matches. Bristol City have conceded in all of their previous six games and their survival in the second tier could be secured before kick-off if results go their way in the 1500 BST matches. 

Peterborough to score first against Bolton, League One 

Bolton need just a point at home to Peterborough to confirm promotion on the final day of the Sky Bet League One season, kick-off is at 1200 BST live on Sky Sports 2 on Sunday. Wanderers sit two points ahead of third-placed Fleetwood, who host Port Vale, and they have a superior goal difference to the Cod Army. That strong goal difference means a point will be enough to guarantee a return to the Championship at the first time of asking. Phil Parkinson’s men have been stuttering to the finish line but a 2-0 victory at Port Vale last time out eased some tension after a three-match winless run. I think Bolton will just about get the job done but I like Peterborough at over 2/1 to open the scoring at the Macron Stadium. Posh’s strength is definitely in attack and they could make things interesting if their youthful array of talent all impress. 

Mansfield to beat Portsmouth, League Two 

The Sky Bet League Two play-off race continues with 11 sides still capable of filling one of the four slots available in the top seven. Eighth-placed Mansfield sit just one point behind Stevenage in the race for the play-offs and I reckon Steve Evans’ men are worth backing to continue their good form with victory at home to already-promoted Portsmouth. The Stags are unbeaten in their last three matches and I reckon they’ll be real contenders to go up if they can finish in the top seven when the music stops on the current campaign. 

Newport to beat Carlisle, League Two 

Newport’s revival has been the big story in Sky Bet League Two over the last few weeks. The Exiles have won four of their last five matches to climb out of the relegation zone and now survival is in their own hands. A long trip north to Carlisle is the challenge for Newport on Saturday and I like them as 12/5 outsiders to get the three points. Carlisle’s promotion bid has been almost eroded on a run of only one victory in their last 12 matches and they can’t be trusted as close to odds-on favourites to secure a rare victory.    

Posted at 1830 BST on 27/04/17.