Sky Bet Championship play-off tips betting tips, best bets and outright preview
Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship
2pts West Brom to win promotion at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Norwich and West Brom to meet in the final at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
Championship play-offs winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- Leeds - 13/8
- Southampton - 13/8
- Norwich - 5/1
- West Brom - 11/2
Odds correct at 1200 BST (08/05/24)
Four teams are three games away from the Premier League and all its riches as they slug it out in the Sky Bet Championship play-offs.
Spectacular for the neutral, nerve-shredding for the fans, an action-packed couple of weeks are promised but are the play-offs really a lottery? A question Dave Pilgrim mused over for us referencing the well-debated momentum.
The interesting thing about these play-offs is none of the sides come into it with any momentum.
Norwich (12th) and Southampton (13th) are the highest in the form table with nine points, West Brom (16th) with seven points and Leeds are in 22nd having taken four points from the last 18 on offer.
Of course, there are caveats. Big hitters were rested with some of the side's fate already sealed with games to spare.
In a campaign which threatened a four team automatic race though, it felt like an anti-climatic end at the top of the second tier.
I just hope the sides can dust themselves off ahead of a shot at the most expensive game in football.
Points per game (last 10)
- 1st | Norwich - 1.8
- 2nd | West Brom - 1.5
- =3rd | Southampton - 1.4
- =3rd | Leeds - 1.4
As ever, the play-off campaign is laced with narrative.
Daniel Farke's Leeds’ take on Norwich, a side he guided out of this division twice as Champions. This will be Farke’s first taste of the play-offs.
David Wagner, in the opposite dugout for the semi-final, has won promotion via the play-offs with Huddersfield Town in 2016/17.
On the other side of the draw, Carlos Corberan reached Wembley with the Terriers in 2021/22 whilst this is the first time Russell Martin has finished above 10th in his managerial career.
Sky Bet Championship play-offs schedule
Sunday May 12: Norwich vs Leeds (12:00 BST)
Sunday May 12: West Brom vs Southampton (14:15 BST)
Thursday May 16: Leeds vs Norwich (20:00 BST)
Friday May 17: Southampton vs West Brom (20:00 BST)
Saturday May 26: Play-off final (TBC)
Favourites? No thank you
The two favourites are undoubtedly the best two sides in the play-offs, the table will tell you as much.
Leeds’ haul of 91 points would have seen them go up automatically in four of the last six Championship seasons and United stake a claim for owning the best player in the division with Crysencio Summerville, and pound-for-pound the best XI.
So, why are they not already promoted?
The fault could lie with their manager.
Farke has come under criticism for his lack of tactical nous. His formation, style of play and XI are all predictable which in a play-off campaign does not stand his side in good stead.
The manager built his automatic promotion charge on a solid defence, only Leicester (41) conceded fewer goals than Leeds (43), but abandoned this approach towards the back end of the season after some wasteful finishing. In the last eight games, Leeds conceded 16 times which is over a third of their total for the season.
This meant Leeds ended the season defensively poor, lacking clinical finishing upfront with key attackers out of form.
Farke's side don’t share the goals around or get many from set pieces (9.8%) either, so, what happens if their top goalscorers are off the boil?
Leeds are best suited to playing without the ball, they have scored the most counter attacking goals (12) in the division.
As we saw when they played Ipswich recently though, Norwich are happy to let the opposition have the ball, something Leeds have struggled to deal with this term.
Factor in Patrick Bamford and Daniel James are also doubts for the first leg of the semi’s and there is enough doubt cast over the joint favourites for promotion.
I'm not sure I want to get a side that has only won three times since the last international break onside at the price available.
Saints marched on too soon?
Southampton are bidding for an immediate return to the top flight.
Their campaign has peaked and troughed. Their record breaking 22-game unbeaten run stretched across Autumn and Winter but ground to a halt on Valentine's Day eve, and having not lost a game for over four months, the Saints went onto lose eight of their last 17 in all competitions.
It looks as though Russell Martin’s side have run out of steam.
To be fair to the Saints, their schedule has been brutal. Leading into the final day, Southampton played nine games in 37 days, an average of one every four days.
That said, Martin is blessed with great squad depth. David Brooks was signed in January, Ryan Fraser, Joe Aribo and Joe Rotherwell often on the bench and Ross Stewart recently returned from injury.
Could Martin have mitigated the heavy schedule better?
There are also question marks over Martin's lack of experience.
Guiding Southampton to fourth is the highest finish of his managerial career. Stylistically, the Saints are a joy to watch but I'm not sure they can turn it on under pressure as their results against the top six show.
They won (4) as many games as they lost with a goal difference of -3 across those 10 games.
In a high octane, low margin play-off campaign I am not sure they are the bet for promotion at 11/8.
Final in the bag?
I fear for Southampton against West Brom.
Martin is one dimensional tactically - total football - which is admirable but easy to prepare for. Carlos Corberan, on the other hand, is versatile.
The Baggies boss is a master at adapting to the opposition and tweaking his side to get points on a game-by-game basis.
For example, West Brom have beaten Norwich, Sheffield Wednesday and Queens Park Rangers this term, all with over 70% possession. The Baggies have also taken 12 points from the 18 available against Leeds, Watford, Hull (twice), Coventry and Ipswich all with less than 40% of the ball.
What a finish that is from Ryan Fraser! 🔥👏 pic.twitter.com/XA02dhGdjZ
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) February 16, 2024
How did they get on against Southampton? Well, it doesn't look good for West Brom as they lost both games. It also means Martin has won all four of his games against Corberan (two with Swansea).
In the head-to-heads this season, West Brom were desperately unlucky not to come away with anything.
Both sides created six ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.30) and West Brom had the better xG (2.88 - 2.71).
Corberan has been here before and as an astute tactician will be relishing the opportunity to plan for one of games with high stakes.
I think the match-up in the semi suits him perfectly, and at the longest price, WEST BROM are worth a punt for PROMOTION.
Barnes won't be hitting the door
A peculiar set of circumstances afforded Wagner the full season at Carrow Road. A change behind the scenes came amidst a rotten run of form and despite Norwich losing eight of the 11 games running up to Ben Knapper’s appointment at Sporting Director, for whatever reason the new man in the boardroom decided not to pull the trigger and sack Wagner.
The Canaries boss rewarded this faith with a top six finish as his side only lost three of their last 17 games, each of which came with caveats.
Norwich led at the Riverside before Borja Sainz was sent-off and they capitulated, they also lead against the Champions Leicester at the King Power. The other defeat was on the final day at St Andrew’s where Norwich had all but secured a top six finish and Birmingham needed to win to stay up.
The issue for Norwich is they lost Ashley Barnes with two games of the normal season remaining and the veteran striker is set to miss both of the semi-final games.
Barnes was operating in a number 10, ironic given his stature, and emerged as the perfect foil for Josh Sargent allowing the American to bag 16 times this term.
Without Barnes, a settled side are at risk.
Wagner tried Marcelino Nunez in the number 10 on the final day but it remains to be seen what the Canaries do for the play-offs.
Wagner does have Jonathan Rowe back available, the Canaries third top goalscorer (12). In Barnes absence, an obvious solution seems to be Rowe out wide, Gabriel Sara in the 10 with Sargent spearheading the attacking.
Between them the trio have netted 41 goals of their sides 79 league goals and have been a thorn in the side of the divisions best sides.
Although I fully expect to be made to look an idiot for going against the two favourites, I think NORWICH could shock Leeds and reach the final. Backing NORWICH AND WEST BROM TO MEET IN THE FINAL appeals.
Odds correct at 1630 BST (08/05/24)
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