FA Cup best bets for Sunday November 6
There are some giants and minnows involved in Sunday's FA Cup ties - Michael Beardmore picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: FA Cup first round
1pt Plymouth to win either half at 13/10 (General)
1pt Oladapo Afolayan to score first in Bolton v Stockport at 7/1 (Bet365)
1pt Under 1.5 goals in Rochdale v Notts County at 33/10 (Unibet)
1pt Shrewsbury to win and over 3.5 goals at 15/8 (General)
Bolton Wanderers v Stockport County
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Sunday
- Bolton 8/13 | Draw 3/1 | Stockport 19/5
There will be Bolton fans fearing the worst for Greater Manchester neighbours Stockport’s short trip after the Trotters’ run of four defeats in five Sky Bet League One games.
County have been a bit up and down themselves in the National League – but it’s been more up than down recently with five wins from their last seven plus the delight at Dave Challinor dropping a division to join as manager from Hartlepool.
There’s a sniff of an upset here for sure but I feel the derby atmosphere as well as the underdog threat will doubly sharpen up Ian Evatt’s Wanderers.
At 8/13 they are too short to tip with any certainty as I feel this will be far from straightforward for the Trotters – but there is value to be found in siding with them in the goalscoring markets.
Namely in the form of leading scorer Oladapo Afolayan who tops Bolton’s marksman charts, by some distance, with seven goals – almost a third of the 22 Wanderers have netted in the league.
The former West Ham youngster has also netted two in the EFL Trophy and is averaging a whopping 4.1 shots per game, thus AFOLAYAN TO SCORE FIRST is hugely overpriced at 7/1 with Bet365 as he’s half the price generally.
Score prediction: Bolton 2-1 Stockport (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Rochdale v Notts County
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Sunday
- Rochdale 17/20 | Draw 13/5 | Notts County 14/5
Another potential shock is on the cards in Greater Manchester on Sunday as League Two mid-tablers Rochdale host National League promotion hopefuls Notts County.
There’s value in the Magpies at 3/1 here against a Dale side that has won just two in 11 – but the problem is that those two have come in their past three and they may have turned the corner.
County are in decent nick, meanwhile, unbeaten in six, winning four – but it’s goals that attracts me in this one, or rather the lack of them, hopefully.
Rochdale’s home games this season have seen a real dearth of goals, their most recent one, a 3-2 win over Sutton United a real outlier. Before that their home results were 0-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 0-0.
That’s mirrored by County’s away results – there are two outliers there, a 3-2 defeat and a 5-0 win at hapless Barnet but the other scores are 0-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-0, 1-1, 1-1.
Under 2.5 goals is available at 21/20 but the jump to 33/10 for UNDER 1.5 GOALS with Unibet is too much to resist when it would have landed in four of Dale’s seven home games and three of County’s eight away - so seven of 15 overall, almost 50%.
Score prediction: Rochdale 0-0 Notts County (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Stratford Town v Shrewsbury Town
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: ITV4
- Stratford 13/2 | Draw 4/1 | Shrewsbury 1/3
For every FA Cup upset there’s another David v Goliath game that goes the completely opposite way and I fear that could be the case for Stratford Town’s big game against Shrewsbury.
Eighth tier faces third tier here and as much as the neutrals will want a shock I just can’t see it, given the Shrews’ improvement after a poor start in League One.
Stratford will be buzzing after qualifying for this stage an rightly so but they have suffered 7-1 and 5-2 defeats in the Southern League Central in recent weeks, hardly ideal preparation.
Shrewsbury have not exactly set the world alight this season but hit four against Cambridge and three at home to Wolves under-23s in the EFL Trophy recently.
They should have enough to win this at a canter given the five tiers between the sides thus the 15/8 generally on offer on SHREWSBURY TO WIN AND OVER 3.5 GOALS looks better than the lower-priced unders in the same market.
Score prediction: Stratford Town 1-4 Shrewsbury Town (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle
- Kick-off time: 12:15 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: ITV
- Sheff Wed 21/20 | Draw 12/5 | Plymouth 12/5
Two sides in pretty fine fettle meet in the FA Cup on Sunday lunchtime in an all-League One affair as Sheffield Wednesday host arguably the third tier’s surprise package this term, Plymouth Argyle.
The Pilgrims are unbeaten in the league since the opening day of the season and sit second, six places and eight points above Wednesday, who are themselves without defeat in six.
Without doubt, the value here lies with the visitors, who are on offer at 3/1 in places despite their lofty position but both teams’ draw habits (six in Wednesday’s last 11, five in Argyle’s) put me off slightly. Neither team will want a replay, however, and as always with the cup, much will depend on the strength of XI fielded by each.
Plymouth have scored in 13 successive games, Wednesday 11 and this is definitely one for your Both Teams to Score acca but at 8/11 it’s a bit short to tip for a single, albeit I wouldn’t dissuade any larger stakers.
Instead, I prefer the 13/10 on Argyle to simply win either half. It’s a bet that would have landed in 11 of Argyle’s past 13 games – even in several of their draws.
They thrashed the Owls 3-0 in the league back in September and while I don’t expect this to be as one-sided, ARGYLE TO WIN EITHER HALF looks an excellent play at the price given their form.
Score prediction: Sheff Wed 1-2 Plymouth (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
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