Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Sevilla to have 5+ shots on target at 9/4 (bet365)
A shock defeat to Lens in their last Champions League encounter shouldn't seriously harm Arsenal's chances of progression to the knockout stage, but anything less than victory in Spain on Tuesday night will make the final three games more nervy than they should be.
The positive is that two of those are at home, but back-to-back defeats in this competition will damage their chances of finishing top of this group - a far more difficult route to potential glory than they should have had.
Sevilla's season has been alright and they've started to pick up points after a slow start. They remain 13th though, with their only home wins of the LaLiga campaign coming against Almeria - who are bottom - and Las Palmas - sat one spot above them in the table.
Diego Alonso's arrival delivered a point against Real Madrid in his first game. There's still uncertainty of what to expect from the hosts.
David Alaba own goal! 😱
— Viaplay Sports UK (@ViaplaySportsUK) October 21, 2023
Sevilla lead against Real Madrid as the ball finds the net off the Austrian ⚪🔴 pic.twitter.com/dgI4IznJwQ
So while it seemingly points to an away win here, the outright market is one to be avoided. Arsenal's price is a tad too short for my interest - that would have been a completely different story had they not slipped up in Lens.
What are the best bets?
While the results haven't been as good as they would have hoped for, this Sevilla side is at least trying to find the net.
Only Barcelona (162) and Real Madrid (180) have taken more shots than than them (152) in Spain's top-flight, and that trend continued in Alonso's first outing with the club.
They had 17 shots to Real's 14, with seven of those being on target. With a best price of 9/5, I'm willing to back SEVILLA 5+ SHOTS ON TARGET here.
Alonso's previous role at Uruguay makes it hard to judge the numbers completely - international and club football require different approaches - but it's interesting that Inter Miami averaged the eighth-highest number of shots in 2020 despite finishing 19th overall.
The Gunners have conceded an average of 10.3 league away games this season, and the hosts should see some chances to score in this contest.
- Lucas Ocampos 2+ shots on target
- Martin Odegaard 1+ shots on target
- Sevilla 5+ corners
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Lucas Ocampos saw a total of five shots in the draw with Real Madrid last time out - that's the third time he's hit that figure in games this season.
Given that we're expecting them to see plenty of shots, it's also worth siding with the odds-against price on them taking at least five to bump up the value of a multiple.
For Arsenal, Martin Odegaard has returned at least three shots on six occasions this season.
Score prediction: Sevilla 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Team news
Both sides have near full squads to choose from for this contest.
Sevilla's only injury concern is forward Mariano Díaz, while Jurriën Timber remains out long-term for the visitors.
Predicted line-ups
Sevilla: Nyland; Navas, Badé, Ramos, Acuña; Soumaré, Sow; Lukébakio, Torres, Ocampos; En-Nesyri.
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Rice, Vieira, Odegaard; Saka, Jesus, Martinelli.
Match facts
- Arsenal have lost their last two away games in the UEFA Champions League, including their first one on the road in the competition under Mikel Arteta (2-1 v Lens) – they last lost three in a row away from home in the 2010-11 campaign, with the third defeat in that run coming against Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona (3-1 at the Camp Nou).
- Sevilla’s starting XIs in the UEFA Champions League this season have an average age of 30 years and 343 days – the oldest of any team in the tournament, as well as being the only side with an average age of 30 or above. Their opponents Arsenal, meanwhile, have the fifth-youngest starting XI on average (25y 154d).
- Youssef En-Nesyri has scored nine goals in 16 appearances for Sevilla in the UEFA Champions League, including one in his last outing versus PSV. If he finds the net in this game, he will equal Wissam Ben Yedder’s record for the most European Cup/UEFA Champions League goals for the club (10).
- Gabriel Jesus has scored in both of Arsenal’s games in the UEFA Champions League this season (two goals), and could become just the second player to score in his first three games for the club in the competition, after Marouane Chamakh in 2010-11.
- Juanlu Sánchez (20y 49d) assisted Sevilla’s second goal versus PSV on MD2, becoming the youngest player to assist a goal for the club in the UEFA Champions League since Diego Capel in October 2007 (19y 249d v FCSB).
- Declan Rice has made 32 progressive carries for Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League this season (moving 5+ metres upfield with the ball), with Manchester City’s Rodri (47) being the only defensive/central midfielder to have made more in the competition across the first two matchdays.
Odds correct at 1425 BST (23/10/23)
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