James Cantrill looks for winners from Serie A, picking out three best bets for the weekend slate.
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Football betting tips: Serie A
1pt Inter to beat Fiorentina at 21/20 (General)
1pt Khvicha Kvaratskhelia anytime goalscorer in Roma v Napoli at 10/3 (bet365)
1pt Khvicha Kvaratskhelia assist in Roma v Napoli at 4/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
Roma v Napoli
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 1
- Roma 15/8 | Draw 12/5 | Inter 11/8
Jose Mourinho got the better of his former player last Monday as his Roma side edged past Sampdoria 1-0.
Dejan Stankovic was schooled by his old master, the scoreline flattering his side who failed to lay a glove on their opponents, losing the xG battle 0.31- 2.40.
Roma were extremely wasteful though, Lorenzo Pellegrini strike from the spot proving to be the difference, La Giallorossi must sharpen up if they are going to stand any chance this weekend against the league leaders.
Napoli, no doubt the division's darlings, have captured the imagination of the Champions League as well, securing qualification to the knockout stages with two games to spare.
This has left supremo Luciano Spalletti free to ponder how best to approach their Scuetto challenge.
Spalletti side’s scintillating offensive play has dismantled his conservative reputation, the Ciucciarelli top Serie A’s goalscoring charts with 25 goals scored in their opening ten games.
Every cog in their fluid 4-3-3 system is pivotal, however, KHVICHA KVARATSKHELIA has been a revelation since moving from his native Georgia.
The winger has had a direct hand in 13 goals in all competitions this season, and I fancy to have a say at the Olimpico on Sunday.
Betfair and Paddy Power have him at 6/5 to score or register an assist, however, it makes more sense to dutch a point on each individual market.
Bet365 have Kvaratskhelia at 10/3 to find the net anytime and this is by far the biggest price available with the same angle as short as 15/8 elsewhere.
Napoli’s mercurial man is averaging 3.43 shots per 90, generating an xG of 2.83, and averaging 0.63 goals per 90.
Purely based on that goal's average alone, anything of over even money would represent sufficient value here which goes a little way to explaining why he is a shade under 2/1 with some bookies.
Obviously, there are plenty of other factors to consider here but backing him to SCORE ANYTIME certainly appeals.
At the price available, an ASSIST cannot be scoffed at either.
Kvaratskhelia has turned provider on three occasions this campaign, with this bet landing in each of his last two appearances.
The winger has scored or assisted in two thirds of his starts, meaning backing him to have a hand in a goal would have paid out in all bar four of his appearances.
He has a G+A per 90 average of 1.02, and dutching both does mean double bubble if he manages both in Roma, something that has already happened this season.
- CLICK HERE to back a Khvicha Kvaratskhelia assist with Sky Bet
Score Prediction: Roma 1-2 Napoli (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct 1510 BST (21/10/22)
Fiorentina v Inter
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 1
- Fiorentina 13/5 | Draw 5/2 | Inter 1/1
Inter look to have recovered from a bit of a wobble where they lost a game either side of the international break.
They have hit their stride now, unbeaten in their last four, enjoying a good few weeks domestically and in Europe, climbing Serie A’s table, however, they remain some way off its summit.
The upturn in form seems to coincide with a change in between La Nerazzurri’s sticks.
In the eight games with Samir Handanovic in between the sticks, Inter only won three games and kept two clean sheets, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game and winning 1.5 points per game.
In the six games Andre Onana has started, Inter have won four and kept clean sheets in half, averaging a goal against per game and 2.2 points.
The Cameroonian shot stopper has made 25 saves in total, outperforming the xGA with Inter only conceding six despite their opponents generating an xG of 7.51.
In comparison, Handanovic conceded 13 goals from an xGA of 7.47.
La Viola have struggled for form recently, only winning one of their nine league matches, a run stretching back to August.
Vincenzo Italiano side failed to beat Lecce in their last outing, a side that are yet to win at home this campaign.
The hosts have not convinced against the division's biggest and best sides failing to win in any of their four games against them this season with Lazio put four past them in their penultimate game.
Score Prediction: Fiorentina 0-2 Inter (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 1520 BST (21/10/22)
Weekend best bets: Serie A
- 1pt Inter to beat Fiorentina at 21/20 (General)
- 1pt Khvicha Kvaratskhelia anytime goalscorer in Roma v Napoli at 10/3 (bet365)
- 1pt Khvicha Kvaratskhelia assist in Roma v Napoli at 4/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
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