Serie A tips: Weekend best bets and previews
James Cantrill looks for winners from Serie A, picking out four best bets for the weekend slate.
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Football betting tips: Serie A
2pts Rafael Leao to Score or Assist in Verona v AC Milan at 10/11 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
2pts Roma to beat Sampdoria at 3/4 (Betway)
1pt Over 5.5 Cards in Atalanta v Sassuolo at 6/4 (Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power)
0.5pts Giorgio Scalvini Card in Atalanta v Sassuolo at 15/4 (bet365)
Sampdoria v Roma
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Monday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 2
- Sampdoria 4/1 | Draw 11/4 | Roma 7/10
At 3/4, ROMA’s price to WIN at Sampdoria is simply too large.
Under Jose Mounrinho, the La Giallorossi have developed a bit of a reputation as flat track bullies, consistently besting the league's basement boys.
Since the Portuguese supremo took charge in Rome, his side have only lost in one of their 15 the newly promoted teams and sides in the bottom six with this bet clicking on 11 occasions.
Monday evenings opposition, Sampdoria, still await their first league victory of the season and prop up the table on three points.
Despite only conceding 73 shots from open play, the Blucerchiati have conceded 14 goals, the second highest total in Serie A.
No side has scored fewer goals than them either, a bleak concoction that saw Marco Giampaolo relieved of his duties after Samdoria’s 0-3 loss at home to new boys Monza.
Dejan Stankovic has replaced him, and a draw in the first game of his tenure was a step in the right direction, however, I think the visitors will have too much for them at the Marassi.
Score Prediction: Sampdoria 0-3 Roma (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct 1500 BST (14/10/22)
Verona v AC Milan
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 1
- Verona 5/1 | Draw 16/5 | AC Milan 8/15
Last weekend, I plumped a RAFAEL LEAO to SCORE OR ASSIST in his side's 2-0 victory over Juventus.
The Portuguese attacker had six efforts, hitting the frame of the goal twice, generating an xG of 0.36 and completing a key pass. Yet, the bet was a loser as both an assist or a goal avoided him, somehow.
Nevertheless, I think this angle is worth revisiting at 10/11 as Rossoneri head to Veneto to face Verona.
Leao boasts a G+A average of 1.13 this campaign, having a direct hand in eight goals in as many games this season.
The frontman was pivotal in Milan’s Scudetto serge last season, scoring and assisting eight goals in their last seven games.
That flurry meant he finished the season as Milan’s top goalscorer (11) and racked up the most assists (10). He also topped the shooting charts, hitting the target more than anybody else, and completed the second most key passes at the club.
Score Prediction: Verona 1-3 AC Milan (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct 1500 BST (14/10/22)
Atalanta v Sassuolo
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 1
- Atalanta 8/13 | Draw 3/1 | Sassuolo 4/1
Alatanta’s unbeaten Serie A start remained intact following their draw in Udine last weekend, however, letting a two goal lead slip will have left a sour taste in Gian Piero Gasperini’s mouth.
Those three points would have kept La Dea level on points with leaders Napoli in the race for their first Scudetto title ever, the manner of the draw will have no doubt taken the wind out of their sails as they had won six of their eight Serie A games up until that point.
The visit of Sassuolo on Saturday evening provides a potential banana skin as the Neroverdi proved to be stubborn opposition for both Milan clubs with AC failing to break the deadlock and Inter leaving it till late to secure the three points last weekend.
Matteo Marcenaro has the whistle for this one, and even by Italian standards he is a bit of a maniac when it comes to cards.
Domestically the campaign, the rookie referee has dished out 18 yellows and four red cards in just three appearances.
The hosts top the charts for ill-discipline in the Italian top flight, accumulating 30 cards, with two thirds of their nine games seeing five or more cards dealt.
Sassuolo have not been quite as cynical, but with an average of just under three per game, they rank amongst the top eight sides in the division for cards.
In a game that pits one of the most card happy referees in the country over the dirtiest side in the division, it makes sense to side with cards.
Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power have the game to feature OVER 5.5 CARDS at 6/4 and this certainly looks worth a punt.
Sticking along similar lines, the player card market is also worth a visit at the Gewiss Stadium.
With captain Rafael Toloi, Jose Luis Palomino and Berat Djimsiti side lined, young GIORGIO SCALVINI should continue in defence.
The Zingonia graduate already has two cards to his name this season, despite only starting three games, and at the prices available, I think backing him to add to his tally and BE SHOWN A CARD is a play here.
With a cards per 90 average of 0.26, anything north of 3/1 would represent sufficient value here, which goes a little way to explaining why he is 5/2 with some bookies.
Score Prediction: Atalanta 2-0 Sassuolo (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct 1500 BST (14/10/22)
Weekend best bets: Serie A
2pts Rafael Leao to Score or Assist in Verona v AC Milan at 10/11 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
2pts Roma to beat Sampdoria at 3/4 (Betway)
1pt Over 5.5 Cards in Atalanta v Sassuolo at 6/4 (Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power)
0.5pts Giorgio Scalvini Card in Atalanta v Sassuolo at 15/4 (bet365)
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