La Liga tips: Weekend best bets and previews
After going 4/5 across the last two matchdays, Liam Kelly continues to look for more winners from a ninth round of La Liga fixtures that features El Clásico.
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Football betting tips: La Liga
3pts Over 12.5 Villarreal total shots v Osasuna at 7/10 (Unibet)
1.5pts Valencia to win with -1 goal handicap v Elche at 23/20 (General)
1.5pts Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals in Real Madrid v Barcelona at 4/5 (General)
Real Madrid v Barcelona
- Kick-off time: 15:15 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Premier Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Real Madrid 6/5 | Draw 13/5 | Barcelona 2/1
The neutral should be in for an absolute cracker here. Both Barcelona's and Real Madrid's strength is undoubtedly in the attacking areas.
That's unsurprising given the talent at hand, and it show's in the metrics.
Real have scored 27 goals and created 2.51 expected goals for (xGF) per game on average in 12 La Liga and the Champions League, while Barcelona have scored 28 times across the same two competitions, averaging 2.66 xGF per game.
Barca's defensive record in the league is little misleading, too. After all, Xavi's side have conceded just once from chances equating to 6.63 xG in the league.
Injuries have played their part in Barca looking more shaky in recent games, a trait that was on full display in their enthralling 3-3 draw with Inter in midweek (xG: BAR 2.65 - 2.69 INT).
Personnel will continue be a problem for Barca at that end of the pitch, but Real are far from convincing in the same area in my eyes.
With the above in mind, BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND OVER 2.5 GOALS in the match is the bet that makes sense, despite the odds-on quotes.
If it wasn't already appointment viewing on Sunday night, this iteration of El Clásico might well be.
Score prediction: Real Madrid 2-2 Barcelona (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 2300 BST (13/10/22)
Villarreal v Osasuna
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
- TV channel: Premier Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Villarreal 11/20 | Draw 3/1 | Osasuna 5/1
After an excellent start to the campaign, Osasuna appear to be regressing to the level of the mid-table side they were expected to be pre-season.
Winless in three La Liga games, Jagoba Arrasate's men are beginning to retreat into their shell, allowing far more scoring opportunities than earlier in the term.
Osasuna have conceded 7.03 expected goals against (xGA) in their last three against Getafe, Real Madrid and Valencia. Villarreal can take full advantage of that recent trait.
However, the match odds look a little short for the home side, who are also out of form — dropping down the table after their own bright beginning.
They've scored just one goal in their last four league fixtures, displaying a familiar negativity in approach from Unai Emery.
Backing OVER 12.5 VILLARREAL TOTAL SHOTS at 7/10 is a confident play with Unibet, though.
Villarreal are a far better side than Osasuna, and with the extra time given for Emery to plan for this match, something we know he excels at, the hosts can dominate at the Estadio de la Cerámica and get their season back on track.
Score prediction: Villarreal 3-1 Osasuna (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct 1600 BST (14/10/22)
Valencia v Elche
- Kick-off time: 15:15 BST, Saturday
- Valencia 2/5 | Draw 18/5 | Elche 7/1
Valencia are quietly performing at a very good level.
Perhaps it is a misconception of how Gennaro Gattuso approaches the game as a manager, but the bookmakers seem a little slow on the idea that Los Che are a positive, threatening side under the Italian.
Even more encouraging is the fact that Valencia have been solid defensively this season, especially at home. Setting aside an understandable 1-0 defeat to Atlético Madrid, Gattuso's side have conceded only once and scored nine times at the Mestalla.
They've allowed just 1.55 expected goals against (xGA) in those three games. As a result, VALENCIA to win with a -1 GOAL HANDICAP in this fixture must make the staking plan.
Elche have done nothing to dissuade me from the thought that they are the basement team in La Liga this season, so it's easy to envisage the home side being completely dominant.
The visitors have posted the worst underlying numbers in La Liga thus far, which make for terrible reading when they play away from home. Indeed, Elche are averaging 0.48 expected goals for (xGF) and 3.60 xGA per game on the road this term.
Additionally, Elche's biggest attacking threat, Lucas Boye, is suspended for this match-up after a red card last time out. Elche's general disciplinary problems only further my interest in the selection.
Score prediction: Valencia 3-0 Elche (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct 1045 BST (14/10/22)
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