James Cantrill looks for winners from Serie A, picking out some best bets for the weekend slate.
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Football betting tips: Serie A
1pt Lazio to beat Inter at 19/5 (Coral)
Already advised:
2pts Over 2.5 goals in Roma v Milan at 6/4 (General)
1pt Rafael Leao to be shown a card in Roma v Milan at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
Inter v Lazio
- Kick-off time: 11:30 BST, Sunday
- Inter 3/4 | Draw 13/5 | Lazio 15/4
Maurizio Sarri has the big boys cards marked.
His LAZIO side have taken 18 points from the 24 available in the eight league games against the top five.
Le Aquile have won their last four games against the division's best sides, coasting to a 4-0 victory against Milan, edging past Napoli and Juventus and besting Roma 1-0 to complete their first derby double in over a decade.
Given their imperious form, the 19/5 about an away victory in Sunday’s early fixture seems a touch large.
The potential for Ciro Immobile to miss out is a major caveat though.
Lazio’s talisman was left hospitalised after a car crash making his chances of playing at the San Siro slim.
Even if Immobile remains unavailable, his side's price TO WIN is simply too big.
Score prediction: Inter 0-1 Lazio (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (26/04/23)
Roma v Milan
- Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 2
- Roma 17/10 | Draw 21/10 | Milan 7/4
Strap yourselves in, AC Milan head to Rome Saturday afternoon.
If recent history is anything to go by, goals, cards and beef should be rife.
Since Jose Mourinho took the reins in the capital, the three meetings between these sides have produced 11 goals and 33 (yes thirty-three) cards.
Honours were shared in the most recent clash that featured four goals and saw 10 yellow cards flashed.
At 6/4, OVER 2.5 GOALS look generously priced.
La Giallorossi have only failed to score in one Serie A game since the reverse of this fixture, the Derby d'Italia, though they were reduced to 10 men within the opening 35 minutes.
Only league leaders Napoli have found the net more times than AC Milan’s (51).
Rossoneri are slightly underperforming on that front as well, generating an xG of 52.36 in the league.
Siding with goals would have paid out in five of their seven games against the current top six.
Given the recent flurry of cards, I think RAFAEL LEAO TO BE SHOWN A CARD is also worth a tout.
The mercurial winger is more suited to drawing bookings then accumulating them but tends to familiarise himself with the referee on the big occasions.
Four of his six cards have come against the biggest and best sides in the division, which includes the one he picked up in the reverse.
The 4/1 certainly provides some interest, as the same angle is as short as 7/4 with other firms.
Score prediction: Roma 2-2 Milan (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (26/04/23)
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