In profit for the Serie A season so far, Jake Osgathorpe returns to select his best bets from across the Italian top flight this weekend.
- Follow @JAKEOZZ on Twitter
- Jake's Serie A tipping record 22/23: +1.94pts profit | 14% return on investment
Football betting tips: Serie A
2pts Both Teams to Score 'No' in Fiorentina v Juventus at 11/10 (BetVictor)
2pts Roma to beat Udinese at 19/20 (Betfair)
1pt Roma to win to nil v Udinese at 13/5 (BetVictor)
Udinese v Roma
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: BT Sport 1
- Udinese 29/10 | Draw 13/5 | Roma 10/11
Udinese have made a decent start to the season, picking up seven points from a possible 12 thanks to back-to-back wins, but there are reasons to be pessimistic as they welcome a strong Roma team.
Zebrette were fortunate to beat Fiorentina last time out, creating just 0.79 xGF, and were also fortunate to come away with a point at home to Salernitana after shipping 2.01 xGA.
In their opener against a title-chasing team in AC Milan, they were completely man-handled, losing 4-2, though the scoreline didn't reflect the dominance of the champions (xG: ACM 2.53 - 0.43 UDI).
Now they welcome another title-challenger, and one who have started the season in a hugely impressive fashion.
Not only have Jose Mourinho's side picked up 10 points from a possible 12, but they have looked incredible doing so at both ends of the pitch.
Roma have averaged an impressive 2.30 xGF per game through four matches - being unfortunate not to have scored more - while allowing a mind-blowing 0.60 xGA per game.
That defensive figure includes a trip to the Allianz Arena to play Juventus, with Mourinho's side limiting Juve to just 0.51 xG.
They look incredibly strong, and a best price of 19/20 for ROMA TO WIN makes huge appeal given the figures they are displaying.
I'm willing to wade in with Roma in another win market too given the extraordinary figures they have put up defensively thus far, and the question marks around Udinese in attack, with ROMA TO WIN TO NIL making appeal at a decent price.
If Roma continue to play in the same manner as shown already this term, this bet will have a real chance of landing, and has copped in three of their four games already.
Score Prediction: Udinese 0-1 Roma (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Fiorentina v Juventus
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Saturday
- Fiorentina 2/1 | Draw 9/4 | Juventus 11/8
It has been an underwhelming start to the new season for Fiorentina, who have just one win to their name, collecting five points from a possible 12.
La Viola have failed to score in any of their last three contests, being involved in two goalless draws in that time, and their underlying processes explain why we are seeing a dearth of goals.
Across their last three, Fiorentina have averaged 0.74 xGF and 1.03 xGA per game, so chances have been few and far between in their matches.
The same can be said for Juventus, who have faired better in terms of points (8), with Massimo Allegri's side keeping three clean sheets in their opening four - conceding only against Jose Mourinho's Roma.
Juve have averaged just 0.93 non-pen xGF per game so far this term though, so are also a team finding it difficult to carve out good chances regularly.
Defence has continued to be strong though, allowing 0.82 non-pen xGA per game, and so just a glance at the figures posted by these two sides this season explains why BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' looks the standout bet here at an odds against price.
This has won in six of the sides combined eight games this term, and landed in both head-to-heads last season.
Score Prediction: Fiorentina 0-0 Juventus (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
