Free football betting tips: Premier League games on Saturday October 3
Tom Carnduff returned profit in his midweek Carabao Cup preview and is hoping for more as he looks at Saturday's Premier League action.
Recommended bets
1pt Wilfried Zaha to have 1+ shots on target in Chelsea v Crystal Palace at 7/5
1pt Leandro Trossard to score from outside the area in Everton v Brighton at 22/1
1pt Luke Ayling 4+ tackles in Leeds v Manchester City at 11/4
1pt Under 1.5 goals in Newcastle v Burnley at 15/8
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Newcastle v Burnley
- 20:00 BST on Sky Sports Premier League
This late Saturday slot is really starting to feel like the fixture that unwinds the day and unfortunately, for a second week in a row, it's likely to bring little entertainment.
Newcastle's showings at Newport in midweek added further worries for a team who lack clear direction, yet somehow still pick up points. Burnley's injury and squad issues have seen them fail to pick anything up in the opening weeks.
Burnley are not the team to go to when analysing the xG of the 20 top-flight sides. Both their xGF and xGA sit at 1.9 - putting them second-bottom in the Expected Goals For metric and the same position for Goals Against. Perhaps they will find a way to find the net against a team with an xGA rate of 6.5 - the third-highest.
Burnley's poor form in front of goal is a concern considering they are averaging 13 shots per game this season. They did net twice against Leicester but if they are to win here, we can expect a low-scoring contest. It's a game that provides little appeal.
It's perhaps more Newcastle than Burnley who make it that sort of game. They are really in danger of becoming a team dragged into the relegation battle if performances don't pick up and the luck we witnessed at both ends in that 1-1 draw with Tottenham simply isn't sustainable.
An away win is a best price of 11/5 with some bookmakers and 2/1 across the board but it makes more sense to look to the unders in the goals market. In this case, with the two teams on display, under 1.5 is preferable at odds of 15/8.
It has been a high-scoring start to the season but we have seen four 1-0 contests so far. There is every chance Saturday evening gives us our first 0-0 and a game that yields few opportunities to find the net.
Both managers would likely take a point at this stage as they look to accumulate early on but the lack of action in front of goal may well be a concern. Entertainment then may be lacking, but we might be able to make it pay nonetheless.
Score prediction: Newcastle 0-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: Under 1.5 goals at 15/8
Opta facts
- Burnley have kept a clean sheet in each of their last two Premier League meetings with Newcastle, as many as they had in their previous 14 top-flight matches against the Magpies.
- Only goalless Sheffield United have a lower shot conversion rate than Burnley in the Premier League this season, with the Clarets netting just 7.7% of their attempts so far (2/26).
- Newcastle have scored with all three of their shots on target so far in the Premier League this season, netting with both against West Ham on MD1, one against Spurs last time out, and failing to register one against Brighton in the other.
Leeds v Manchester City
- 17:30 BST on Sky Sports Premier League
The game of the Premier League weekend. Leeds v Manchester City. Marcelo Bielsa v Pep Guardiola.
Leeds' arrival back to the top-flight of English football was exciting for the neutral given the attacking brand of football played in the Sky Bet Championship and they have not disappointed. Six points from their first three games, despite a narrow defeat at Liverpool, will be seen as an excellent return.
Manchester City pose another test though and their 5-2 defeat to Leicester last time out can be viewed as both a positive and negative for Leeds. City have played the wounded animal far too often of late but they tend to do it well, and they won't necessarily object to a side with Leeds' attacking intentions.
City have defensive problems of their own though and Leeds, who have scored eight goals so far, represent good value at 9/4 to net two or more goals.
The fact that over 3.5 goals is odds-on shows just what the money makes of both of the defences on display here; perhaps that is a good indicator of just how strong the attacks are too. Alex Keble's excellent tactical preview outlines that these two shouldn't cancel each other out, but rather open up plenty of opportunities to score.
Leeds hit three against Liverpool and their signings in the transfer window demonstrate why they should be a team who are fairly comfortable this season. While the temptation was therefore to go for goals here, as outlined in our midweek Punting Pointers, Leeds' high number of tackles makes for great value in the stats market.
The hosts lead the Premier League in this area by a significant margin. They average a total of 23 per game but had 34 successful tackles in that opener against Liverpool. Bielsa's high intensity football helps this and we can expect a similar number here given the contest.
Leeds may have only registered 13 last time out but that number should increase drastically at Elland Road. One player in focus is Luke Ayling, the right-back who leads the average tackle count for Leeds this season. He has made four in his last two games and had six successful ones against Liverpool.
Sky Bet make it 11/4 that Ayling continues on his average of having four or more successful tackles in this contest. There's 6/1 on Leeds having 27+ successful tackles but the generous price on Ayling playing his part is more than good enough to pick out as the best bet here.
Manchester City are the odds-on favourites but if this game ends up reflecting that Liverpool contest for Leeds then the home side can't be completely disregarded and 9/4 on a double chance in their favour may be worth considering. City are City, which unfortunately means those defensive problems remain.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Best bet: Luke Ayling 4+ tackles at 11/4
Opta facts
- Manchester City lost 2-5 against Leicester last time out, shipping as many goals in that defeat as they had in their previous 11 league games combined. They’ve not lost back-to-back Premier League games since December 2018.
- 58% of Leeds’ shots in the Premier League this season have been on target (19/33) – only Leicester (59%) have a higher such ratio so far in the competition this term.
- Kalvin Phillips has created nine goalscoring opportunities in the Premier League this season, more than any other Leeds player. Indeed, in each of Leeds’ three matches so far, Phillips has either had the most or the joint-most chances created for the club.
Everton v Brighton
- 15:00 BST on BT Sport
Brighton have a case for the police with plenty of evidence to supply; last week's 3-2 defeat to Manchester United was one of the biggest robberies we've seen in football. It's not just the penalty given after full-time but the fact that Brighton also set an incredibly unlucky record during the defeat in hitting the woodwork five times.
No team has had a figure that high in a single Premier League game since Opta started collecting the data in 2003/04. Spare a thought for Leandro Trossard, who completed a hat-trick of woodwork strikes as he was denied a remarkable three times.
The forward enjoyed four total shots in that game but what is interesting is just how many of his efforts are coming from distance. Two in that game came from outside the area, and of course, the post denied him a goal from range.
All three of his shots against Newcastle were taken from outside the area while he scored from distance in the 3-1 defeat to Chelsea on opening day. Of his eight total shots this season, 75% of them have come from outside the area. For a team who have seen 43% of their total shots hit from outside the box, it's worth exploring the goalscorer odds available this weekend.
Trossard's 22/1 price on a goal from outside the box looks far too generous considering the statistics so far. It is a difficult one to achieve, although we did have a 10/1 winner with James Rodriguez in this area the other week, but with anytime goalscorer odds of 4/1 it's much better to gamble with the numbers and get a significantly better price.
Everton are a side in great form and they will want to keep the momentum going but Brighton will prove to be tougher opposition than their position in the table suggests. They can count themselves unlucky that they only have three points on the board so far.
The Toffees are towards the top of the table and, weirdly, heading to the top of the charts too. Carlo Ancelotti's men are flying so far and the 4/5 price on a home win is worth inclusion in any 3pm accumulators.
But Trossard has demonstrated that he can create multiple opportunities to strike from distance, and against an Everton side who have conceded this season, he can provide the big-price winner on Saturday. If Everton give him that chance, Spirit of the Blues will be on repeat in my household throughout Saturday night.
Score prediction: Everton 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: Leandro Trossard to score from outside the area at 22/1
Opta facts
- Brighton are averaging 14.7 shots-per-game in the league this season, their highest rate in any of their Premier League campaigns. The Seagulls expected goals (xG) rate is also the highest it’s been for them in the competition, with an xG value of 1.8 per game so far.
- Everton have had 59 10+ pass sequences in open play in the Premier League this season, (19.7 per game); only Liverpool have had more (60). Last season, they averaged just 7.7 per game, ranking 11th overall in the division.
- This will be Everton boss Carlo Ancelotti’s 100th Premier League game in charge (W59 D19 L21). Only five managers have won more of their first 100 in the competition than the Italian - José Mourinho (73), Pep Guardiola (73), Manuel Pellegrini (65), Alex Ferguson (62) and Roberto Mancini (62).
Chelsea v Crystal Palace
- 12:30 BST on BT Sport
Much was expected from this Chelsea side following a summer of heavy spending but after three games, they are already appearing to be making the same mistakes of last season.
Chelsea had no issues finding the net but defensively they were a mess. Having conceded six goals across their opening three games, the fifth-most in the Premier League, it's being revealed as an area that they have neglected once again.
They are ever so slightly outperforming their xG with 4.8 in their for column and 4.5 against. Coming up against a Palace side with five goals on their tally and 4.1 xG from three games, Chelsea are expected to miss out on a clean sheet once again.
The concern, or one of many, for Frank Lampard is that they are yet to put in a convincing league performance this season. Brighton had numerous opportunities to score while West Brom hit three in the first half; a better defence for the Baggies would have survived that second-half fightback. Against Liverpool, the Blues had no interest in attack.
One player who will enjoy the opportunity to come up against this Chelsea defence is Wilfried Zaha. After a fairly quiet season by his usual high standards, the forward has hit back with three goals across his first three games and played an instrumental part in their recent success against Manchester United.
Betfair's price of 7/5 on a shot on target for someone playing as a striker is big. Bookmakers will often look at the fact that Palace aren't a side who average a high number of shots but as pointed out in the Premier League preview a couple of weeks ago, that rate does improve against the 'Big Six'.
At Old Trafford, Palace had 14 total shots of which Zaha contributed four. Two of them found the net and we can't completely disregard his best odds of 4/1 for a goal anytime if we're searching for a goalscorer bet in the contest.
But that 7/5 for one shot on target looks far too generous in the circumstances and is the bet. This is a Chelsea side who have conceded an average of 13.3 shots per game in the Premier League this season, the joint-sixth highest, and Palace could well hit a similar tally to the one they enjoyed against Manchester United.
You wonder what the atmosphere is like at Chelsea considering one win from three in the league and a midweek defeat to Tottenham in the Carabao Cup. Palace are as big as 7/1 for victory here; that makes the double chance in their favour best odds of 2/1 and that does appear to be the best outright option.
Rather than gamble on a result, it's better to take the above even-money odds on Zaha hitting the target in this contest. He should probably be odds-on.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-2 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Best bet: Wilfried Zaha to have 1+ shots on target at 7/5
Opta facts
- Crystal Palace are looking to win their opening two away Premier League matches of a season for the third time (also 1997-98 and 2015-16) and could become only the second team to win at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford in consecutive away Premier League games, after Sunderland in April/May 2014.
- Chelsea have conceded at least three goals in four of their last 10 Premier League games, as many times as they had in their previous 56 matches in the competition.
- Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has been involved in six goals in his 12 Premier League games against Chelsea (3 goals, 3 assists) – against no side has he had a hand in more goals in the competition (also 6 vs Leicester).
Odds correct at 1600 BST (01/10/20)
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