Premier League tips: Predictions and best bets for Saturday's fixtures
George Pitts runs through the best bets, Super 6 predictions and top stats for each of Saturday's 3pm Premier League encounters.
Recommended bets
2pts Eden Hazard to score and Chelsea to win at 5/4
1pt Crystal Palace to win to nil at 9/4
1pt Jeffrey Schlupp to score anytime in Palace v Southampton at 7/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Brighton v Fulham
A meeting between two sides looking to avoid a relegation battle this season.
They both have one win to their name so far, both have excellent managers and squads that look capable of staying up.
Brighton's last home outing saw them pull off a surprise victory over Manchester United, but they could be brought back down to earth here as they host a buoyant Fulham.
The Cottagers scored four as they beat Burnley last week - a victory that could kick-start their season and they are fairly priced at 5/2 to get the victory here.
There were plenty of positives to take from that match, with summer signings Jean Michael Seri, Aleksandar Mitrovic (twice) and Andre Schurrle getting on the score sheet.
An interesting one to note is that German forward Schurrle had 11 shots against the Clarets - netting with his final attempt - and at 11/2 he looks a good price in a score-and-win double after getting a taste of glory in the white shirt.
The Cottagers put in an impressive attacking performance last time out and they can trouble Chris Hughton's Seagulls, so backing an away victory with the draw no bet concession at 5/4 looks excellent value.
Super 6 prediction: Brighton 1-2 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best Bet: Fulham to win/draw no bet - 5/4
Key Opta Stats
- Brighton have won each of their last five league games against Fulham, all in the Championship between December 2014 and January 2017.
- Fulham’s only victory at the Amex Stadium came in their first ever game there – 2-1 in November 2014 (L2 since).
- Brighton have won just two of their last 12 Premier League matches (D3 L7), both home wins over Manchester United.
- Brighton have won six of their last seven home league matches in September (L1), winning both Premier League games last season against West Brom and Newcastle.
- Fulham’s Premier League matches this season have seen the most shots (99) and shots on target (44), with the Cottagers the only team to have both taken and faced at least 20 shots on target (21 attempted, 23 faced).
- Fulham’s André Schürrle had 11 shots against Burnley, the most by a player in a Premier League game this season – the German finally found the net with his 11th attempt in the match.
- Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored 15 league goals since his debut for the Cottagers in February – no player has scored more in the top four tiers of English football since then (Mo Salah also 15).
Chelsea v Bournemouth
Chelsea have made a perfect start to the season and they can take this run to four successive wins when they welcome Bournemouth to Stamford Bridge.
The Cherries have won two of their last three Premier League meetings at Stamford Bridge, and you can back them to win here at a best price of just over 10/1.
They have had a great start to the season, with seven points from nine - and have already won at Chelsea in 2018 - and Eddie Howe's men will hope to continue an impressive start to the season.
But they should suffer a first defeat on matchday four, with the Blues now under the stewardship of Maurizio Sarri and we do not expect them to slip up on Saturday.
They may have been fortunate to get away with the win at Newcastle due to a fortuitous penalty and late own goal, but Chelsea dominated possession and it should be the same case on Saturday.
Eden Hazard told reporters before their trip to Tyneside that he was '200% fit' and he was effective on his first start for the Blues this season.
He had 74 first-half touches at St James' Park - only second to Jorginho - and his dribbles were key as he tried to unlock the Magpies' defence. It is one thing knowing about his threat, but another to actually stop him and expect him to be vital again when the Cherries visit West London. Backing him in a score-and-win double brings an eye-catching 5/4 price while he is available at 9/2 to score first.
Another one to note at 17/20 is Chelsea to score in both halves - the win at Newcastle was the first time they have failed to do so this term.
Super 6 prediction: Chelsea 3-0 AFC Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best Bet: Eden Hazard to score and Chelsea to win at 5/4
Key Opta Stats
- Over the last three seasons, no side has beaten Chelsea at Stamford Bridge more often in the Premier League than Bournemouth (2, level with Crystal Palace, Liverpool and Man City).
- Bournemouth have won two of their three Premier League away games against Chelsea – against no side have they won more on the road in the top-flight (also 2 vs Newcastle, West Ham and Bournemouth).
- The away team has triumphed in five of the six previous Premier League meetings Chelsea and Bournemouth, with the exception being a 3-0 win for Chelsea in December 2016.
- Chelsea are aiming to win their opening four Premier League games of a season for the sixth time, having also done so in 2004-05, 2005-06, 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2014-15, winning the league in all but one of those seasons (2010-11, finished second).
- Bournemouth are looking to win three consecutive away Premier League games for the first time – their last run of three away league wins was in their final three away games in the 2014-15 season before their promotion.
- 75% of the away Premier League points Bournemouth manager Eddie Howe has won at ‘big six’ opposition have come at Stamford Bridge (6/8), with his two victories there his only wins in 18 of these matches (P18 W2 D2 L14 Pts 8).
- Chelsea’s Eden Hazard has had a hand in three goals in his first three Premier League games under Maurizio Sarri (1 goal, 2 assists), one more than he managed in his final 10 league matches under Antonio Conte (1 goals, 1 assist).
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Palace to beat Southampton at just over evens could be the best price you can get for a home team in the top flight this weekend.
Roy Hodgson's Eagles have lost two in a row since their opening day victory at Fulham, but we are backing them to return to winning ways and get all three points against Mark Hughes' struggling Saints.
Palace's win over Swansea in the Carabao Cup will have done them some good, with Alexander Sorloth scoring, while Southampton got a late winner at Brighton.
Palace were unbeaten in 12 of 19 home games last season, showing how difficult a place Selhurst Park is to visit, and their only league game there so far this season was a 2-0 defeat to title chasers Liverpool - who only sealed the victory late in the game.
Roy Hodgson's side did not concede at Fulham and - going in to the end of last season - they have kept five clean sheets in their last eight games in all competitions, while Southampton are yet to score more than one goal in a match this term. Therefore Palace to nil could present returns at a best price of 9/4.
Wilfried Zaha is the obvious danger man for the hosts (19/10 anytime) but moving Jeffrey Schlupp further forward has proved a masterstroke and provided the Eagles with even more threat out wide, in addition to that of Zaha, Andros Townsend and marauding left-back Patrick van Aanholt.
Schlupp has been nominated for Palace's player of the month award after his displays and 7/1 for him to find the back of the net could present real value.
It's going to be a long season for Mark Hughes at Southampton - we said the match at Everton could prove to be a wake-up call but they just cannot get going and a trip to Palace is certainly not what they need right now.
Super 6 prediction: Crystal Palace 2-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best Bet: Crystal Palace to win to nil at 9/4
Key Opta Stats
- Crystal Palace have only won three of their last 19 top-flight meetings with Southampton (D4 L12), though those victories have come in the last six meetings.
- Southampton have won four of their last six away league games against Crystal Palace, losing the other two.
- Southampton have lost seven of their last eight Premier League games in London, with the only exception being a 1-0 win at Crystal Palace in September 2017.
- Crystal Palace lost all four of their Premier League matches in September last season by an aggregate score of 11-0.
- Mark Hughes has managed six away Premier League matches at Crystal Palace and won none of them (P6 W0 D2 L4) – he has lost his last four visits to Selhurst Park in all competitions.
- Roy Hodgson has only lost one of his seven managerial encounters with Mark Hughes, a 2-1 defeat to Man City as Fulham manager in September 2009 in the League Cup.
- Since beating Crystal Palace in Roy Hodgson’s first match in charge in September 2017, Southampton have won just 13 points in 18 away Premier League matches (W2 D7 L9).
- Under Roy Hodgson, winger Wilfried Zaha has been involved in 14 Premier League goals for Crystal Palace (11 goals, 3 assists), more than any other player since Hodgson’s first game in charge in September 2017.
- As Southampton manager, Mark Hughes has seen his side score first in six Premier League games – they’ve lost more of those matches (3) than they’ve won (2).
- The two players to have had the most shots without scoring in a Premier League game this season have done so against Crystal Palace – Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic (7) and Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (6).
Everton v Huddersfield
The tough start to the season continues for Huddersfield as they face a trip to Everton hopeful of getting their first win at the fourth attempt.
They face a Toffees side yet to taste defeat in the Premier League under Marco Silva after winning one and drawing two and we expect them to triumph here - even without the suspended Richarlison.
With the start to the season in mind, it is hard to look past Huddersfield and Cardiff as favourites for the drop and David Wagner's team need a change in fortunes fast to get out of a losing habit.
A home game with Crystal Palace and away trip to Leicester gives them hope but shows the tough task in hand for the Terriers.
Everton should prove too strong at Goodison and 11/20 is the best price available for the home victory, as they look to get over throwing a two-goal lead away in the draw at Bournemouth.
A skull fracture to Michael Keane at the Vitality last week should allow Kurt Zouma to come in for his Everton Premier League debut after playing in the Carabao Cup win over Rotherham in midweek, showing the strength in depth they now have.
A home win-to-nil looks good at 11/8 with Town looking well short up front - having had only 16 attempts on total in their three games this term.
Looking for further value, Everton to win with a -1-goal handicap at 6/4 could be worth backing, while Theo Walcott (9/4 anytime) has bagged in his last two league appearances.
Super 6 prediction: Everton 2-0 Huddersfield (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best Bet: Theo Walcott to score anytime at 9/4
Key Opta Stats
- Everton won both meetings with Huddersfield by a 2-0 scoreline last season. The Terriers were one of just three teams Everton beat twice in the Premier League in 2017-18 (also Stoke and Newcastle).
- Huddersfield haven’t won any of their last 14 away games against Everton in all competitions (D2 L12), last winning there 2-1 in the top-flight in September 1937.
- Everton have won 17 of their last 20 home Premier League games against team starting the day in the bottom half of the league (D3) since losing to 14th placed West Brom at Goodison Park in February 2016.
- Huddersfield have managed just 16 shots in their first three Premier League games this season – the same tally as Sergio Aguero and Mohamed Salah have attempted alone so far this season.
- Huddersfield have failed to score in their last five away matches in September in all competitions (D1 L4) since winning 1-0 at Leeds United in September 2016.
- Theo Walcott has scored in his last two Premier League games for Everton – he hasn’t scored in three in a row in the competition since May 2013 for Arsenal.
West Ham United v Wolves
A real tough one to call as both sides search for their first Premier League win of the season - and that is probably why it screams out a draw.
West Ham and Manuel Pellegrini are more in need of the points in this one, having lost their opening three and they will be hoping the midweek comeback at Wimbledon in the Carabao Cup will provide them with some sort of springboard to secure the three points.
Wolves will enter the match buoyant after holding champions Manchester City to a 1-1 draw but the top-flight newcomers will have upped their performance levels for the visit of the champions and facing another struggling side will be a different sort of clash.
The two sides have quality, expensively-assembled squads and should be nowhere near the bottom come May.
Marko Arnautovic has looked lively early on for the Hammers, while Wolves' Ruben Neves has unsurprisingly found his feet in the top tier.
A draw is available at a best price of 5/2, while there could be value in the booking points market seeing as West Ham already have 12 cautions in four games (all competitions) this term.
That includes six in their last home game - a 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth - and with a frustrating start tempers could stray again.
West Ham to receive the first booking at evens is tempting, while over three West Ham cards in the match looks juicy enough at odds in excess of 3/1.
Super 6 prediction: West Ham 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best Bet: Over three West Ham cards at 15/4
Key Opta Stats
- This will be the first Premier League meeting between West Ham and Wolves since New Year’s Day 2011, when West Ham won 2-0 at Upton Park.
- In all competitions, Wolves have won just one of their last nine away games against West Ham (D2 L6), winning 3-1 in the Premier League in March 2010. This will be their first ever visit to the London Stadium.
- West Ham have lost their last two home Premier League games against promoted sides, vs Brighton (0-3) and Newcastle (2-3) last season. They’ve never lost three such games in a row in the competition.
- West Ham have lost their first three Premier League matches in each of the last two seasons – however, the Hammers have only lost their opening four league matches of the season in one of their previous 92 seasons, doing so in 2010-11 under Avram Grant.
- West Ham forward Marko Arnautovic has had a hand in 14 Premier League goals in 2018 (8 goals, 6 assists), eight more than any other Hammers player.
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Posted at 1000 BST on 31/8/18
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