Football betting tips: Nations League
19:45 - N Macedonia vs Scotland
2pts Scotland win to nil at 7/4 (William Hill, BetVictor)
19:45 - Spain vs Czechia
2pts Under 1.5 Czechia corners at 6/4 (BOYLESports)
0.5pt Pau Cubarsi 1+ shot on target outside the box at 10/1 (bet365)
0.25pt Pau Cubarsi to score from outside the box at 150/1 (William Hill)
North Macedonia vs Scotland
- Kick-off: Saturday, 19:45 BST
- TV: BBC Two
- Live odds, form and stats
Under 2.5 goals is understandably short (4/6) for a meeting between two sides who have so far failed to score in this season's Nations League.
It may not have been a good start for new boss Sebastien Pocognoli in terms of results - a goalless draw in Slovenia was followed by a chastening 3-0 home defeat by Switzerland meant Scotland have now failed to score in four successive matches for the first time in more than 50 years - but context is needed and there remain reasons to be positive.
Tuesday's loss was largely due to Jack Hendry's ultimately futile 11th-minute red card. The centre-back was sent off for a last-man foul and Ricardo Rodriguez subsequently fired home the resulting free-kick.
In their opener Scotland started slowly before showing plenty of promise. They failed to have a shot until the 43rd minute, but from that point on the xG scoreline demonstrates their dominance (xG: SLO 0.05-2.16 SCO) with the hosts restricted to just one shot and the Tartan Army having 17 in those final 47 minutes.
For North Macedonia there is little reason for optimism.
They also lost 3-0 at home to the Swiss, without any extenuating circumstances, and were easily beaten 2-0 in Slovenia.
No-one in the top two flights of the Nations League have created anywhere close to as little as their 0.7 xG across the opening two matchdays, and of the 54 teams in the competition the only sides to create less are Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar and San Marino.
They have lost five straight matches, haven't scored in any of their last six and have found the net just twice in 10 fixtures.
It makes the 7/4 about SCOTLAND WIN TO NIL a strong bet.
The Tartan Army will surely find a way through - Israel (5.2 xGA) are the only team in Nations League A and B who have allowed more than North Macedonia's 4.4 xGA.
Spain vs Czechia
- Kick-off: Saturday, 19:45 BST
- TV: Amazon Prime PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
There is seemingly no stopping Spain. The reigning European and world champions are unbeaten in 40 international games following a 4-1 thumping of Croatia last time out, and now welcome the weakest team in their Nations League group, Czechia.
The Czechs are going through a transition having appointed a foreign coach for the first time in their history, and that foreign coach happens to be the successor to Luis de la Fuente in Spain's youth ranks, Santi Denia.
His tenure as Czechia boss has started poorly with two home defeats to Croatia and England, with his side convincingly second best in both despite playing in front of a home crowd.
Now on the road against such a dominant team, it doesn't get any easier, and it could in fact be a real shellacking, repeated Spanish attacks and one-way-traffic. That has me looking towards my favourite international market - opposing team corners.
That's going to be the play here, backing CZECHIA UNDER 1.5 CORNERS at 6/4. Not only did this bet land in both of the Czech's Nations League games so far - both at home remember - but it has been a constant winner in Spain's recent games given the dominance with which they play.
This bet landed in six of Spain's eight World Cup games, and while it hasn't landed yet in the two Nations League games, Croatia only managed two and England are a level above both Croatia and Czechia. The Czechs are on the decline this looks a good way in.
Also, given the ball and territory dominance Spain will have here, and the likely deep-block Czechia will be forced into, the price about defender PAU CUBARSI having 1+ SHOT ON TARGET OUTSIDE THE BOX at 10/1 makes appeal, as does the whopping 150/1 for him TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX.
During the World Cup, Cubarsi fired off four shots with three coming from long range and two hitting the target, while in two games in the Nations League he has taken one shot but that was from range. He's not afraid to shoot and is invited to given how deep Spain's opponents drop.
He looks worth chancing at the prices, and while it's unlikely he scores a Lewis Dunk-esque thunderbastard, the price on offer is simply too good not to cover just in case, with the same bet as short as 28/1 in places.
Odd correct at 13:00 BST (2/10/26)
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