Joe Townsend runs the rule over the first Premier League manager to leave 'sack race' market ahead of the new season, picking out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Sack race
2pts Regis Le Bris (Sunderland) to be the next Premier League manager to leave at 20/1 (Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Alvaro Arbeloa (Fulham) to be the next Premier League manager to leave at 14/1 (General)
There is a distinctly fresh look to the Premier League managerial line-up this season.
Nine clubs have new men in charge, with two further sides heading into a first full campaign under their manager. Michael Carrick is hoping to build on a superb half-season at Manchester United and Roberto De Zerbi has been handed a cliched transfer war chest after saving Tottenham in the final month of 2025/26.
Firms who went early enough with the "first Premier League manager to leave" market have already had to pay out after 9/1 Eddie Howe decided Newcastle 2.0 wasn't for him on July 31, removing the one manager from the market who would have entered this campaign under any kind of cloud.
Most firms waited almost a fortnight to put the market back up, delayed by the strung out appointment of Howe's successor Matthias Jaissle.
It's very different now than it was at the end of July, with a fairly formulaic look.
Next Premier League Manager to Leave odds (via Sky Bet)
- Sergej Jakirovic - 11/4
- Gary O'Neil - 4/1
- Frank Lampard - 7/1
- Oliver Glasner - 9/1
- Matthias Jaissle - 11/1
- Alvaro Arbeloa - 14/1
- Regis Le Bris - 14/1
- Daniel Farke - 16/1
- Roberto De Zerbi - 16/1
- Pierre Sage - 20/1
- Marco Rose - 20/1
- Fabian Hurzeler - 33/1
- Xabi Alonso - 33/1
- David Moyes - 33/1
- Michael Carrick - 33/1
- Enzo Maresca - 50/1
- Keith Andrews - 50/1
- Unai Emery - 50/1
- Andoni Iraola - 50/1
- Mikel Arteta - 80/1
- No Manager to Leave - 80/1
Newly-promoted trio not worthwhile
Few people are giving Hull any hope of avoiding the drop with more talk of them breaking Derby’s unwanted points record of 11 than of safety, so Sergej Jakirovic is an unsurprising 11/4, halved from his initial price as the Tigers summer business has not turned heads.
Even with an eccentric owner it is not worth being drawn in at that price. Two seasons ago Russell Martin was sent packing after play-off winners Southampton lost 13 of their opening 16 games, but Manchester United (Erik ten Hag), Leicester (Steve Cooper) and Wolves (Gary O’Neil) had all pulled the trigger by then.
The newly-promoted clubs don't look worth a look, even if O’Neil has a tough act to follow in replacing Kieran McKenna at Ipswich. That is reflected by his shift from 12/1 to 4/1 second favourite.
Frank Lampard did have clubs sniffing around him before committing to Coventry earlier in the summer, but having opened up as 9/2 favourite he has drifted to 7/1 likely as a result of the Sky Blues beginning to make a few more signings.
No problem for (most) new bosses
Nottingham Forest blew this market apart last term.
Evangelos Marinakis provided the first casualty by sacking Nuno Espírito Santo in August, and subsequently sent Ange Postecoglou and Sean Dyche packing. Vitor Pereira at least made it until the end of the season, before being promptly replaced by Oliver Glasner.
It's hard to argue with Glasner sitting fourth in the betting given his boss has such an itchy trigger finger, but this looks a shrewd appointment.
Of the other newly appointed coaches I would be very surprised if - utter crisis of a start aside - Marco Rose (Bournemouth), Pierre Sage (Crystal Palace), Andoni Iraola (Liverpool) and Enzo Maresca (Manchester City) were not given time, with their clubs having reputations for being especially well run.
Xabi Alonso can join that list too thanks to Chelsea’s change in transfer policy this summer, with their lack of European football also giving him an excellent chance of making a success of it at Stamford Bridge.
Fulham's appointment of ALVARO ARBELOA is the one that leaves a question mark.
When the news first broke that the Cottagers were close to appointing him as Marco Silva's successor it was a surprise.
A club that had performed so well for so many years under a proven manager able to reinvent the team despite the regular departure of key players, replaced by an unproven coach from abroad whose only management experience is six months with Real Madrid 'B' and four with Real Madrid itself.
After replacing Xabi Alonso at the Bernabeu in January, Arbeloa's side were knocked out of the Copa del Rey by second-tier club Albacete, eliminated at the quarter-final stage of the Champions League by Bayern Munich and limped to second place in La Liga behind Barcelona, who they lost to in El Clasico.
His record of W17 D2 L8 is pretty grim reading for a manager of one of biggest clubs on the planet.
Fulham's first five Premier League games of 2026/27
- August 24: Chelsea (H)
- August 30: Sunderland (A)
- September 5: Crystal Palace (H)
- September 12: Liverpool (A)
- September 20: Man Utd (H)
At 14/1 he looks worth a bet to be THE NEXT PREMIER LEAGUE MANAGER TO LEAVE especially as Fulham have a difficult opening five games with fixtures against Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United, as well as a long trip to Sunderland.
It is also hard to overlook the fact that Kieran McKenna looked certain to be appointed if reports are to be believed, only to resign as Ipswich boss and announce he was taking a break from management.
Appointing Arbeloa has meant the Cottagers have avoided paying for a fee for Silva's successor, with it widely reported that should McKenna be appointed by a new club in the next 12 months his employer will still have to pay £8m in compensation.
A bad start and £8m suddenly doesn't look much in Premier League terms.
Much further down the betting sits REGIS LE BRIS, who has done a phenomenal job at Sunderland over the past two years, winning promotion via the play-offs in his first campaign before clinching a remarkable seventh place last term.
It was the best performance of a promoted club since Wolves in 2018/19. That team was spending the kind of sums that would not be possible under the current rules, and unsurprisingly were able to build on that success.
Better comparisons come a year later when newly-promoted Sheffield United finished ninth. They finished rock bottom the next season, a campaign where newly-promoted Leeds secured an eighth-placed finish. Leeds stayed up on the final day 12 months later, finishing 17th.
Both clubs sacked their managers during those campaigns despite Chris Wilder and Marcelo Bielsa being club legends for what they had achieved.
This time 12 months ago Le Bris very nearly didn't get the chance to test himself in the top flight with lots of speculation Sunderland might replace him. Those rumours resurfaced in the latter stages of the campaign when the Black Cats' form dropped off and they looked set to miss out on European football.
Back-to-back wins combined with a collapse from some of their rivals saw Sunderland sneak into the Europa League, which while exciting makes this an even more challenging season domestically.
Smaller clubs tend to struggle combining domestic and European action, and that could be a real issue for a Sunderland team who rode their luck last season.
According to the underlying data they ranked 18th in the Premier League in terms of expected points, above only relegated duo Wolves and Burnley.
Sunderland owner Kyril Louis-Dreyfus has not shown loyalty in the past, with four different permanent managers - plus a long interim spell for Mike Dodds - in the opening three years of his tenure before appointing Le Bris.
He even sacked Tony Mowbray despite him leading the club to the Championship play-offs in their first season after promotion from League One, with Sunderland sitting just three points outside the play-offs midway through the next campaign.
At 20/1 LE BRIS looks a good bet to be THE NEXT PREMIER LEAGUE MANAGER TO LEAVE with there a stronger argument than simply the uncertainty over Arbeloa, so the staking plan will be weighted more favourably in his direction.
Or unfavourably I suppose...
Odds correct at 15:00 BST (14/08/26)
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