Leicester head to Rome for the second leg of their Europa Conference League tie with Roma, and Jake Osgathorpe gives his best bets in this match preview.
1.5pts Roma to win in 90 minutes at 6/5 (Unibet)
Leicester are a game away from a European final, but face the daunting task of taking on a Jose Mourinho-led Roma side in their own back yard.
The Foxes were the better side in the first leg, but it was a classic Mourinho display - score early and sit back - with a 1-1 draw a decent enough result for the Italians.
Leicester created enough to warrant a first leg lead, but will now face a different task in front of a raucous home crowd that has helped their side to 10 home wins in Serie A this term, the third most in the league.
Mourinho's men have been steady operators in Rome, averaging 1.55 xGF and 1.10 xGA per Serie A game, while winning three of an unbeaten five games at the Olimpico in the Europa Conference League, netting 16 times and conceding four in those matches.
It really is a tough place to go, and Leicester's away record this season makes for grim reading.
In the Premier League, Brendan Rodgers' side have lost nine of 17 away matches, averaging 1.15 xGF and a whopping 2.02 xGA per game, while also losing three of six away in Europe.
They will create chances here, but their vulnerable defence is a major issue, even with players returning from injuries.
I think Roma have a touch more quality than the Foxes, plus a strong home advantage and process against a struggling away side, so the ROMA WIN IN 90 MINUTES appeals at a best price of 6/5.
Price-wise, Roma went off at 6/10 at home against both Fiorentina and Sassuolo, two teams who I think aren't too far off the level of Leicester, while Mourinho's mob went off as 13/10 favourites when welcoming Serie A leaders AC Milan - who are a lot better than the Foxes.
All of this means the price of 6/5 is too big, they should be closer to even money - maybe even odds-on - here, so I am happy to get with the Italians.
Score prediction: Roma 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1525 BST (03/05/22)
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