Football betting tips: Nations League
0.5pt Nathan Collins to score anytime at 23/2 (Unibet)
0.5pt Dara O'Shea to score anytime at 12/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet)
BuildABet @ 21/1
- Rep of Ireland to win
- Both teams to score 'No'
- Dara O'Shea to score anytime
It was a good display from Ireland in the first leg of their Nations League play-off, deserving of their win in what was a dominant display (xG: BUL 0.32 - 1.85 ROI).
Heimir Hallgrimsson's reign started poorly but has started to gather some momentum, winning three of their last five, and they should get over the line in this two-legged game against a poor Bulgaria team.
Doing so would see them stay in League B of the Nations League, which is important, as it provides Ireland with much stronger opponents to measure themselves against as they advance under the new manager.
Bulgaria head to the Aviva continuing to find goals difficult to come by. They have netted just four in their seven Nations League games, firing blanks in two of their three away games.
What are the best bets?
A home win to nil did appeal at 13/8, but I have to pick up where Jimmy left off when previewing the first leg.
He identified Ireland's set-piece strength, tipping both DARA O'SHEA and NATHAN COLLINS TO SCORE ANYTIME and was so close to landing the bounty.
Collins took two shots equating to 0.29 xG while O'Shea had three shots totalling 0.12 xG, so the pair had opportunities and at the prices, we have to go back in again.
- CLICK HERE to back Nathan Collins to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Dara O'Shea to score anytime with Sky Bet
It's 12/1 for O'Shea to find the net and 23/2 for Collins, with both huge value in my book. Collins is 11/1 with Sky Bet which is fine too.
Ireland will probably be a fine-margin team moving forward under Hallgrimsson, and the former Iceland manager puts a lot of emphasis on set-pieces, meaning every game we should attack centre-back scorers when the price is right.
Team news
It's unlikely that Republic of Ireland manager Heimir Hallgrimsson will make many changes to a winning Ireland side.
That means Troy Parrott should lead the line again, while at the back, Dara O'Shea should partner Nathan Collins.
Bulgaria could be without goalkeeper Dimitar Mitov who went off injured in the first leg, meaning Plamen Iliev will start in the only change for the visitors.
Predicted line-ups
Republic of Ireland: Kelleher; Doherty, Collins, O'Shea, Brady; Cullen, Knight; Johnston, Azaz, Manning; Ferguson
Bulgaria: P. Iliev; Nedyalkov, Atanasov, A. Petkov, Nurnberger; M. Petkov, Kraev, Gruev, Krastev, Despodov; L. Petkov
Match facts
- Republic of Ireland have never lost a home match against Bulgaria in five previous encounters (W2 D3), with the most recent game ending goalless in November 2020.
- Bulgaria have failed to win any of their last six games against Republic of Ireland (D4 L2), netting just four goals in that time and never more than one in the same match.
- Republic of Ireland won their last home game, beating Finland 1-0 in November. Eire are looking to win consecutive home games for the first time since September 2022.
- Bulgaria won 1-0 in their last away UEFA Nations League game against Luxembourg in November. They haven’t won consecutive competitive away internationals since victories against Luxembourg in October 2006 and Belarus in June 2007 in UEFA European Championship qualifiers.
- Seven of Republic of Ireland’s last 10 international goals have come via headers, including each of their last three in succession, and both in the first leg of this UEFA Nations League tie in Bulgaria on Thursday.
- Bulgaria have failed to score in 58% of their away UEFA Nations League games (7/12), scoring just six goals in total across their 12 competition matches on their travels.
- If he features in this match, Matt Doherty will make his 50th appearance for Republic of Ireland, becoming the first player to reach that milestone for his nation since Shane Duffy vs Portugal in November 2021.
- 19-year-old Rocco Vata made his first appearance for Republic of Ireland last time out against Bulgaria, and could become just the third teenager to score for them in the 21st Century, following Evan Ferguson (three goals in 2023) and Troy Parrott (two goals in 2021).
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (21/03/25)
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