Champions League betting tips: Real Madrid v Liverpool best bets and preview
Liverpool's Champions League campaign continues with a trip to Real Madrid and Tom Carnduff has found value in backing a midfielder.
Football betting tips: Real Madrid v Liverpool
1pt Casemiro to score anytime at 7/1 (Unibet)
0.5pts Casemiro to score a header at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
Liverpool's title challenge in the Premier League is over, but they still remain in the hunt for European success with a spot in the Champions League quarter-final.
Despite sitting three points behind Madrid rivals Atletico in the LaLiga standings, Real are 10/3 outsiders for success in Spain's top-flight. It's also rare that we see them as big as 10/1 to win Europe's top club competition - they are expected to go out at this stage.
Liverpool have been hit-and-miss though and have struggled to pick up consistent results in 2021. Losses have been as common as victory and this is a Real side unbeaten in their last 11 games. While the bookmakers favour Liverpool, Real can cause problems.
Casemiro worth backing at big odds
When we look at the goalscorer market, the likes of Karim Benzema, Mohamed Salah and Diogo Jota are, rightly, on the shorter side. However, given the statistics throughout the season, there is value in the 7/1 available on CASEMIRO TO SCORE ANYTIME here.
The defensive midfielder has six goals on his tally across all competitions but the statistics show that he could have had more. He's had 34 shots in LaLiga this season and his number has shot up in recent weeks with chances on goal becoming more common.
Casemiro's last five league outings have brought 13 shots with two assists across that period. There were three shots in his last Champions League outing, a 1-0 win over Atalanta, while his Infogol expected goals per LaLiga game figure is 0.20, the third-highest in this Real squad.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
- xG process is the rate at which a teams create and concede chances
Essentially, Casemiro's current form is more akin to an attacking midfielder than a defensive one, and his odds are too big to ignore in this contest.
While the midfielder's anytime goalscorer odds are worth backing, so too is the huge 18/1 available on CASEMIRO TO SCORE A HEADER with Sky Bet. His presence in the air can be deceptive and he has struck from a header at multiple points this season.
Four of Casemiro's six goals this season have been headers. This also includes goals scored recently in LaLiga. It's hardly a surprise when he leads the way for average aerial duels won per game (3.3) in this Real squad and the number remains high (2) in the Champions League.
Liverpool are seventh for goals conceded from set-piece situations in the Premier League this season and do miss Virgil van Dijk's presence at the back. Only Real Betis have scored more than Real Madrid from corners and free-kicks in LaLiga - it could be a successful route for the hosts.
The outright result is one to avoid here. Both teams have seen success in recent games and there is little appeal in the prices on offer because of that.
Instead, it's worth backing CASEMIRO to be on the scoresheet at 7/1, with a smaller stakes play on that to be through a header.
Real Madrid v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Casemiro to score anytime at 7/1 (Unibet)
- 0.5pts Casemiro to score a header at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Real Madrid 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (05/04/21)
More from Sporting Life
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
