Jake Pearson previews the second leg of the Champions League quarter-final between Real Madrid and Chelsea, picking out his best bets and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Chelsea to have 16+ shots at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
Before a ball was kicked last week, the bookmakers were struggling to split these two in terms of the most likely team to qualify for the semi-final, but after Real Madrid’s 3-1 victory at Stamford Bridge the Spaniards are now as short as 1/18 to progress to the next stage of the competition.
That seems a bit of an overreaction, but Chelsea certainly have a bit of a mountain to climb away in the Santiago Bernabéu, though the removal of the away goal rule does leave them with at least half a chance.
After their 6-0 demolition of Southampton at the weekend as well, it is not too difficult to conceive of a scenario whereby Thomas Tuchel’s men put a couple of goals past a Real backline that has conceded six goals in its last four matches.
Real Madrid v Chelsea (agg: 3-1)
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
Real Madrid 29/20 | Draw 13/5 | Chelsea 17/10
The Spaniards are in good form otherwise, though, a 2-0 victory over Getafe at the weekend seeing them maintain their 12-point lead at the top of La Liga.
They are in pole position to set up a semi-final tie with either fellow Spaniards Villarreal or Bayern Munich, but they will have to survive a huge onslaught from Chelsea if they are to secure their spot in the final four of the competition.
Though victorious in the first leg, it was Chelsea who recorded the more attempts, more possession, more passes, more corners and the better-quality chances, winning the ‘xG battle’.
The Blues racked up a total of 20 shots against the Spanish giants last week, and backing Tuchel’s side to once again place former goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois under siege looks a good way to approach the fixture.
Real will be happy to surrender possession to Chelsea and attempt to protect their lead – Carlo Ancelotti’s men have just the 10th highest average possession in the competition this season, seeing less of the ball than their opponents in all three of the knockout games they have played.
Only Bayern Munich and Liverpool have averaged a higher possession count than the Blues in this term’s competition, so expect the game to be played in the Real half of the pitch.
With the game state as it is as well, with Chelsea in need of two goals to draw level, it logically follows that Tuchel’s side will adopt a shoot-on-site policy in order to quickly get themselves back into the tie.
Real have conceded the 11th most shots in this season’s competition, so the Spaniards are clearly comfortable with allowing the opposition the space to shoot from distance.
CHELSEA TO TAKE 16+ TOTAL SHOTS is a more than reachable target, particularly considering how many they had in the first leg, and the desperation of the situation. The price of 5/4 about that happening makes plenty of appeal.
Real Madrid v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Chelsea to have 16+ shots at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Real Madrid 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (11/04/21)
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