The biggest game in world football takes place on Sunday night, with Real Madrid hosting Barcelona in El Clasico. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game.
Football betting tips: La Liga
1pt Draw at 13/5 (General)
Real Madrid look to be sauntering to the La Liga title, some 10 points clear of closest challengers Sevilla with just 10 games remaining.
They have been the best team in the league all season long according to the underlying data, but since Xavi took over at Barcelona, they have had some close competition.
The Catalonian's have picked up since the club legend was brought in, surging up to third in the table, now just five points behind Sevilla.
Barca are unbeaten in 12 league games, and will be looking to halt their bitter rivals charge on Sunday.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: La Liga TV
Real Madrid 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Barcelona 11/5
If we look at both teams from when Xavi was appointed, the November international break, there is very little between them.
Real Madrid have posted the marginally better xGD per game and only very slightly better xP per game, while Barcelona have been better defensively.
With Barcelona away from home in this contest, and their away struggles in recent seasons well documented, I had to glance twice when looking at their underlying numbers on the road under Xavi.
In 10 games away from the Camp Nou, Barca have averaged 2.12 xGF and 1.04 xGA per game (a league high xGD per game of +1.09) while posting a league best 2.00 xP per away game.
This team now thrives away from home.
All of this makes Barcelona appealing at a big price, but in the same span, Real Madrid have been by far and away the best home team in the league (+1.50 xGD per game and 2.04 xP per game).
So, it may be boring, but I'm going to sit on the fence in this game and back THE DRAW.
The two giants of world football are very evenly matched currently, and a draw would likely be a result that pleases both sides given the state of play in La Liga.
Barcelona's Europa League exploits on Thursday are a small concern, beating Galatasaray in Turkey, but they have a squad deep enough to rotate top player with top player, and so I expect them to get a result at the Bernabeu.
El Clasico: Real Madrid v Barcelona best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Draw at 13/5 (General)
Score prediction: Real Madrid 1-1 Barcelona (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1415 GMT (18/03/22)
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